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Deja vu, another London mayoral candidate says High Speed Rail doesn’t deliver benefits

Next year Londoners will have a sense of déjà vu when they go out to vote in the Mayoral elections: among a range of candidates, Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone will be fighting each other again. And Ken has kicked off his mayoral campaign by opposing the current plans for HS2. On this we agree with him, as our past research indicates (on the business case, on jobs and on capacity). Having said that, he’s also hedged his bets if it the project does go ahead. He wants the trains to go to Waterloo instead of Euston. Livingstone said:

“The obvious thing to do is that HS2 should follow the existing line into Euston and then just before it reaches Euston it should go into a tunnel and come out at Waterloo. You’d save all the houses from demolition, you’d have 25 trains an hour going through central London, and all for the cost of building two and a half miles of tunnels between Euston and Waterloo and opening an interchange at Tottenham Court Road. Crossrail opens in 2013 – people will get off at Heathrow and in 20 minutes they will be at Tottenham Court Road. There could be an interchange with HS2 taking people north.”

Understandably, he’s based his objections on what will impact residents in London, and is hoping to position himself as a defender of those in social housing in North London who may have their homes bulldozed and those who are concerned about the noise. But Ken’s idea of a dramatic re-route to Waterloo sounds like it was made up on a whim just in case the project goes ahead, without any idea of how it could work or how much it would cost. The line between London and Birmingham will cost at least £17 billion so such a dramatic would undoubtedly be expensive and after checking with a rail expert the concept doesn’t seem viable either.

That said, he makes some interesting points about the pressure faced by commuters, which is where spending on infrastructure should be focused. Livingstone understands that HS2, for all the money it will cost, doesn’t actually address the current demand in London, he mentions the need for better lines and capacity between North London and South London. Many lines are already overcrowded and should have their capacity increased, rather than lose out to government pet projects. This doesn’t only apply to London though; the priority should be better transport links (soon not delayed until after 2026) for commuters on already overcrowded and expensive routes across the country, particularly on suburban commuter routes. HS2 doesn’t address this need, in fact it will diminish services for many towns and is little more than a vanity project.

Ken is right to be concerned about the line running to Euston. He shouldn’t only be concerned about those living on the route though. The concern for Londoners should extend to the impact the new funnelling into Euston will have on the tube lines there that won’t be adaptable to the change. Anyone that takes the Victoria Line at rush hour should be horrified at the thought of even more passengers flooding into to this station thanks to HS2. Any future London Mayor might want to suggest the knock on costs to be factored into HS2 proposals rather than hidden.

High Speed Rail is supposed to be a project that closes the North-South divide, according to the Government. But analysis shows that 70 per cent of the new jobs created would be in London. The train would simply make it easier for well off people living in Northern city centres to get to London. Those still trying to make their way to work in Birmingham, Manchester and the rest will still be constrained by poor services. This somewhat obliterates the claim that the line is about regenerating northern cities.

A mayoral candidate with considered concerns about the flaws in the project is Jenny Jones of the Green Party, who was a speaker at our conference against the HS2 proposals last week. Her concerns were not only about Londoners, or taxpayers.  She believes that the project, will not be carbon neutral, as HS2 Ltd sums say it will be – she believes it will have a negative impact on the environment. Jenny Jones said:

“This HS2 scheme fails the two green tests, environmental and social justice. It will be environmentally damaging in its construction, its operation and its ongoing maintenance. It will be fuel and carbon hungry and also regressive: with the many paying for the few. HS2 would be billions of taxpayers’ money badly spent.”

Originally the train was pitched as an eco-train but we don’t hear that claim now, as even those lobbying for it to go ahead have only managed to come up with figures that show the different in emissions between HS2 and existing lines as negligible. So there we have it. The TPA object on the grounds it is bad for taxpayers. The Green Party have environmental concerns. Other speakers at our event objected too, for a variety of other reasons, click here to watch the speeches. The RAC foundation explained that transport projects don’t normally go ahead with such a poor return on investment. The Countryside Alliance made an interesting point about the line destroying more public woodland (474 hectares) than any proposed transfer of ownership from the Forestry Commission.
Ken is objecting to the current proposals on the grounds it isn’t a good deal for Londoners, but adds a vote-grabbing get-out clause. He needn’t bother with the caveat though. A quick look at our research on the business case, on jobs and on capacity should broaden the scope of his objections.

Evidence continues to show the taxpayer picks up too big a bill for the public sector payroll

A study out today from Policy Exchange shows that public sector workers are better paid, and on average earn more for shorter hours. This study shows that the public sector ‘premium’ – the additional pay a typical public sector worker receives over a private sector worker – is now 35 per cent more calculated on hourly pay. Because those on salaries in the public sector tend to work shorter hours, for typical annual pay the premium is up to 16 per cent. Regular readers will know this is something we’ve blogged about for a number of years now, for example here, and our Public Sector and Town Hall Rich Lists have highlighted the huge growth of the number of executives on six-figure salaries and ludicrous pay hikes. Our Research Fellow Mike Denham has also written extensively on public sector pay on his blog.

While many workers in the private sector faced pay cuts in the recession, pay continued increasing in the public sector, ignoring the urgent and obvious need to better control costs. It’s totally at odds with the reality faced by the vast majority of private sector workers who can’t reach into that seemingly inexhaustible source of money – taxpayers’ pockets. It’s often said that public sector workers are more likely to be professional and have more qualifications, but that doesn’t explain this pay gap either.

A tale of two wallets

 

The report also talks about other superior benefits enjoyed by public sector workers, such as shorter hours, more holidays and better pensions. On top of the stats bearing these facts out, I’m sure everyone can relate to this anecdotally. I know several people who have worked for councils and admit to counting down the hours until their lunch break and then again until 5pm. There isn’t a desire to go the extra mile, or the push to from management. What’s more, there is barely any threat of being fired if you don’t pull your weight. It’s not simply down to these individuals being lazy either; they had so much potential and did go on to be engaged and productive for less money in the private sector. Of course there are many thousands of hard-working and talented workers in the public sector, but although it pays generously pay isn’t the defining factor in employee engagement and so good value for taxpayers. All of this contributes to lower productivity across the public sector, which dropped 0.3 per cent between 1998 and 2007: a period of record hikes in public spending. During the same period productivity in the private sector went up 2.3 per cent. As we’ve said before on these pages, Governments too often confuse taxpayers’ cash – or what politicians call “investment” – with commitment. Improving things doesn’t mean chucking a load of money at them and hoping some of it sticks.

Another report out recently, from PricewaterhouseCoopers, on absenteeism is also worth looking at. It shows the number of days taken off varies greatly by country and between those working in the public and private sector. The report has some interesting figures and also some conclusions on what impacts on the level of sickness. In the UK the average worker takes 10 days off a year because of sickness, this is comparable with Europe but dramatically higher than Asia-Pacific at 4.5 days and the US at 5.5 days. PwC commented that in the US there are shorter holidays and longer hours which you might expect to impact on stress and sickness rates, in fact it seems that motivation engagement and desire to be at work are actually bigger factors.

Absenteeism is costing the British economy £32 billion per year. And this disproportionately hits the taxpayer. As in similar recent revelations on council staff sickness, PwC found the average absenteeism rate is brought up by public sector workers who average 12.2 days a year compared to the lowest rates in technology companies at 7.6 days.

As I commented at the time: “It’s scandalous that yet more research confirms public sector staff are pulling more “sickies” than those in the private sector. Of course employers should be sympathetic to genuine illnesses but there seems to be a different approach when taxpayers’ pockets are raided to foot the bill. These findings also suggest that a lack of commitment will lead to more absenteeism, which means taxpayers are getting a bad deal twice, both by funding extra days off and picking up the tab for disengaged staff.”

The conclusion of Policy Exchange’s report comes up with three solutions: local pay-bargaining and an end to national strike ballots; replace the two-year pay freeze on individual salaries with a freeze in the total pay bill for public sector organisations; reforming public sector pensions. We’ve said before that local pay-bargaining should come to an end. It’s very destructive and in some cases in the NHS it can actually put patients at risk. The two year pay freeze was something we recommended in our book How to Cut Public Spending, and was subsequently implemented by the Government. Freezing the overall pay bill would have much the same effect fiscally, though it might be harder to enforce politically. We’ve discussed how we would reform public sector pensions at length, and the scale of the problem is not recognised by official debt figures either, so the report is right to flag this up as a pressing issue.

Public sector bodies must find savings and pay is usually their biggest expense. Having implemented a two year pay freeze, the Government have to look at longer term solutions to ensure that well these pay ‘premiums’ do not get back out of control.

How many cats does it take to rip up red tape?

David Cameron has announced a ripping up of red tape. Yesterday we saw a new website appear called The Red Tape Challenge. Less bureaucracy is a good thing and listening to people from the real world is also welcome. But previous attempts and promises to decrease regulation have not been followed through, and evidence suggests that in fact more regulations are being created than abolished. Also, earlier attempt to listen to people online – like the spending challenge website – haven’t been a resounding success. So we’ll wait to see if this idea will fare any better, hopefully one of these ideas will have a significant impact on the mount of bureaucratic tasks that hinder rather than help any real output.

The private sector – and especially small entrepreneurs – can grow and employ more people once needless layers of forms and rules are stripped out. But who will be deciding which ideas to progress with? And will there be a resolve to implement good ideas? Because the truth is that bureaucrats are in the way of abolishing bureaucratic rules. It’s difficult to see some civil servants admitting that the public think half the tasks their office undertakes are pointless, and that significant change might lead to a smaller, more efficient and less costly back office. Ideally the task will be given to optimistic, dynamic staff who will be allowed to push for change. But there was a pretty successful programme that aired in the 80’s that made a satirical comedy of these very same challenges. Times haven’t really changed.

It will be interesting to watch how this website progresses. However if the government wants to being taken seriously on reducing insignificant, costly tasks, then as well as lifting burdens imposed centrally on the private sector, they need to focus on the public sector back office too, and work out how many people are creating work for themselves and are trying to look busy.

Metro Front Cover
However, one heroic cat managed to cut some red tape this week. You might have seen this story. Five fire crews from up to 30 miles away were sent to rescue one tabby cat from a two-storey roof. I actually didn’t believe the story when I first heard about it; even when it was confirmed it still seemed like a silly mistake. It turned out to be a matter of procedure; they were complying with working at height regulations. Yes, fireman should be safe but some ladder climbing does come with the territory. This wasn’t a skyscraper, it was a two-storey house. And five fire engines from different towns and 22 firemen being sent out is clearly excessive and a waste of money and resources.

I criticised the excessive red tape, saying:

“It’s almost laughable but wasting resources is bad news for taxpayers and others who might have needed to be rescued, so it’s not funny. Of course we want firemen to be safe, but health and safety and red tape has resulted in an excessive and costly response.”

I added on ITV Anglia that surely fire chiefs should be allowed to exercise some common sense. And to their credit, they decided to act and change policy. Great. The cat is also safe too, apparently it found it’s own way down anyway. So a happy ending all round? Not quite, although Senior Fire chiefs had responded to calls for commons sense with a promise to change rules, Union bosses had a different perspective. The local chairman of the FBU agreed that sending five crews was excessive, but in a move almost as ridiculous as the initial story, he used the opportunity to say they needed more staff.

Andy Vingoe, Suffolk branch chairman of the FBU, said:

“Health and safety says that if we go up on to a roof, it brings into play our working at height procedures and safety system. If a cat is stuck on a roof there is a chance the owner could get distressed and try to rescue it themselves and we would end up having to rescue them as well. It is crazy and it’s overkill and if we are having to send five teams to an incident like that, what happens if there is a serious incident elsewhere? It strengthens our case that we need more people to make sure we have enough cover to cope with the demands of the service.”

But at least fire chiefs have reviewed their policy. Now all we need to do is get that cat on the Red Tape Challenge website. He seems pretty adept at getting rid of bureaucratic rules.

Zadie Smith’s lecture suggests BBC bias

I enjoy listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 each morning and catching a little of the show from the moment I wake up to the time I run out the door. If I hear “Thought for the Day” it means I am late and need to hurry up. Apart from this short, religious feature the comment and discussion on Today aims to be clear, balanced, trusted and believable; which is why is it highly respected and a good measure of the morning’s news agenda.

Yesterday I thought I was late when Zadie Smith read what became an increasingly politicised short lecture about libraries (listen to the full programme here), without being challenged. Her comments about libraries being closed because Old Etonian cabinet ministers don’t know what it’s like to crawl on their hands and knees for a book, were wildly emotional and political.  It is difficult to imagine the BBC allowing me to speak, uninterrupted, about the national debt or public sector pensions; in fact I hope that if I was on the Today programme someone would be there to respond and remind listeners that not everyone shares the TaxPayers’ Alliance view. Impartiality is rightly one of the central tenants of the BBC’s editorial guidelines. I understand that when I speak on the BBC I will be challenged about my views, instantly, not half an hour later when most of the audience will have moved on and taken the conclusion of the trusted institution of the BBC on board.

Once I realised this was not ‘Thought for the Day’ I was genuinely shocked and appalled, not least because Zadie Smith seemed to be misinformed on the subject.  Local councils rather than central government are choosing to close libraries. While I support lower taxes I also want better services and she made a mistake about where to lay the blame. She wondered how history would judge the cuts, a risky thing to predict without the distance. Her report from the crystal ball also didn’t seem to recognise that spending cuts are only going to reduce expenditure to the level it was at in 2006-7, hardly the dark ages!

Yes, central government is reducing the deficit and reining back on excessive and unsustainable levels of spending, and we are having to spend more of that total on debt interest unfortunately. But as I remember there were libraries in 2007, it wasn’t a destitute society she depicts where immigrant families were ignored and given no chance in life or access to libraries. While all types of services need to reviewed and some could potentially be run better with the motivation of the private sector, the idea that councils are being forced to make such cuts by government is ridiculous.  Under the Localism Bill councils are in charge of how they spend their money. As Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government Eric Pickles has found, he can only do so much to encourage them to stop spending money greedily and recklessly, he can’t even get them to take small pay cuts. If councils claim they can’t work out how to get better value, the question is where is all the money they collect in council tax and receive in central government grants going?  This is either a clear choice by councils to protect their ballooning and overpaid army of 9-5 bureaucrats or it shows those running local councils do not care enough or are not competent enough to see the savings to be made.

Zadie Smith has the right to express her opinion.  However, without being more realistic about where the blame lies and who her target should be, she risks her statements about history looking at lot more like her specialist genre, fiction.  She should have focussed her anger at the councillors who make these decisions for their councils, which are perfectly well funded to provide a library service (and could have driven measures to run them more cheaply and efficiently). Her deeply political comments about where the blame lies are in my view shockingly inaccurate and should have been challenged.

We don’t have much choice about paying the BBC’s licence fee and the corporation has an obligation to provide a balanced view in news and current affairs programming. That is the premise on which they operate. Their costs are passed onto hard-pressed families across the country, those who don’t pay are prosecuted. The television tax is a regressive tax that hits the poor, elderly and students the hardest. The BBC prides itself on what it sees as its impartiality and the television tax which funds it. How long can the Beeb sustain its cosy funding arrangement while using it for biased, partisan ends?

Hammond gets all NIMBY

The attempts of Philip Hammond to stereotype anyone who disagrees with his aims as NIMBYs is looking increasingly desperate and starting to lack logic. Much like his business case.

Headlines yesterday read: “Minister: Only NIMBY’s oppose 250mph trains”

Journalists note that critics have attacked the proposals on the basis of it being far too expensive or not green enough. There are plenty of other gaping holes in the rationale for this project. There is a huge range of national critics, groups with no particular link to those parts of Buckinghamshire that might be disrupted. Critics who have expressed concern over the proposed benefits of such a project include: Friends of the Earth, Sustainable Development Commission, RAC Foundation, Financial Times, us here at the TaxPayers’ Alliance and the Green Party.

Hammond is trying to avoid answering the valid arguments put forward against HS2; but we know he is aware of them.

A letter we helped organise to The Daily Telegraph was signed by a wide variety of different business leaders and economists, experts with genuine experience of private sector investment and what constitutes a decent business case.  They concluded that the case for HS2 doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. The Conservatives’ competitiveness guru Simon Wolfson signed the letter along with a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, so you would hope Phillip Hammond would pay attention. The letter got a huge amount of media coverage and the next day Barry Sheerman MP, who is a staunch supporter of HS2, told Hammond in the Commons to “hold his nerve”. That implies the opposition to the scheme had the potential to shatter Hammond’s nerve, and makes it even more ludicrous that he is still pretending all of the opposition is only coming from people who live along the route.

The pressure is on and it’s from groups that have pulled apart the business case, the job-creation projections, the green argument and the regional regeneration claims. Questioning whether this is a good deal for taxpayers in other parts of the country where the route doesn’t affect them except by landing them with a £1,000 bill is not NIMBYism.  This isn’t about local versus national interest, HS2 isn’t in the national interest.

Clearly this isn’t just a local issue. Of course those along the route will feel strongly about a huge construction project going on in their area, and they are perfectly entitled to. But they are by no means the only opponents.  Anyone who can see this scheme isn’t worth the money is an opponent. Anyone who would rather keep the £1,000 is an opponent. Hammond knows that.

“NIMBY is an acronym of Not In My Back Yard – a derogatory term for people who aren’t happy with a project or idea just because it affects what they personally stand to lose.”

Hammond wishes that it was only those along the route who had realised this is a raw deal, just as he wishes the business case for this vanity project stood up to scrutiny.  He’s a Minister who presumably agrees in principle with ideas like: consulting the public, giving taxpayers’ a good deal, listening to valid objections; but that kind of thing can be unwelcome when it clashes with a Department’s signature project.  Agreeing with a concept in theory but not when it negatively affects your own interests? There is something a bit NIMBY about that, isn’t there?

Government promoting High “Speed” Rail which will slow down more journeys than it speeds up

As a regular user of both the West Coast mainline and Paddington station I am increasingly worried about the impacts of the High Speed Rail. Underneath the grand statements and infinite promises being made by Phillip Hammond are a series of admissions that show this line will make many people’s journeys longer and less convenient.
We have been looking at the proposed business case, or lack of one, for the High Speed Rail line from London to Birmingham. We have analysed the plans and projected benefits for HS2 and found them severely flawed, see Chris Stokes’ article for the Wall Street Journal for a round up of the key points. The government’s case falls down.

One area where the project did seem to work was that it would deliver quicker journeys. Only marginally quicker to Birmingham, the journey time would be reduced by 30 minutes at a cost per family of £600 – a price you will pay even if you never use the line. Incredibly though, in an article for The Sunday Telegraph Andrew Gilligan has revealed that many areas are set to see a slower service. He expects the new train will disrupt existing train lines and so slow down the journeys of more rail users than it speeds up.

We’ve highlighted other ways of getting the capacity we need, and reducing overcrowding, at a much lower cost and without disruption other journeys in the same way. Chris Stokes, rail expert and author of our Report into High Speed Rail has highlighted that as the new and expensive trains will share a section of the line with existing trains there could be considerable delays in timetables as the trains share the line.

But Andrew Gilligan has looked at the issue in detail and found that government documents show certain current routes will be badly affected. The routes he points to are in the West Midlands and North West, London area stopping services, and trains leaving Paddington. He writes that:

“We can reveal that up to 750 trains every day to places not on the new high-speed line are likely to be slowed down, or scrapped, according to HS2 documents… Almost 40 million passenger journeys a year will be affected, with no HS2 alternative available to them – and that’s on current figures.
The services to be slowed and cut fall into three groups. The first are the existing fast trains from London to the West Midlands and North West, which will be “recast with reduced frequency”.
The annexes to the HS2 prospectus, published last year, state that the current 120 fast trains a day between London and Birmingham on the existing line (60 in each direction) will be reduced to about 40. Passengers to Birmingham will at least have a high-speed alternative, albeit at premium fares. But travellers to other destinations on the current line will not.
Coventry, for instance, will lose two-thirds of its fast trains to London and those that remain will be slowed down by 10 minutes. The existing Manchester and Liverpool services will be cut too, by about 50 trains. Stoke-on-Trent will lose half its London service, which will also be slower. Wolverhampton, Tamworth, Nuneaton and several other places will suffer a similar fate.
According to MOIRA, the rail industry traffic database, Coventry alone is the fourth busiest intercity destination from Euston, with 976,000 passengers making the trip last year. The number of passengers travelling between the smaller Midlands cities and London is collectively a million a year greater than the number travelling from Birmingham to London.
Yet cannibalised transport links will almost certainly worsen the serious economic inequalities that already exist between regional hubs such as Birmingham and their much less prosperous satellite cities.
The second group of passengers affected will be in the London area. Here, the prospectus says, the local stopping service to Watford could be “removed” or diverted to help free up platform space at Euston for high-speed rail. Though scarcely as glamorous as Mr Hammond’s shiny new line, this service alone runs 130 trains a day and carries five million passengers a year, twice as many as currently travel from Euston to Birmingham.
The largest group affected, however, is in a completely different part of the country. According to the HS2 prospectus, trains coming into Paddington will be slowed down to stop at a new HS2 interchange at Old Oak Common, just west of London.
The idea is to improve the connectivity of the new route – but this alone will slow down the London-bound rail services of around a fifth of the country, including the whole of the Thames Valley, western England and South Wales. About 500 trains a day currently run in and out of Paddington, carrying more than 29 million passengers
a year.”

Click here to read more from Andrew Gilligan

These figures are shocking. The train line will impact on existing busy train routes and slow down other journeys. It’s a worrying knock on effect for this extremely expensive project.  It was bad enough to imagine that hard pressed taxpayers in many parts of the country would be saddled with the bill without needing high speed rail. The potential for the train to slow down so many other critical routes suggests this investment could be an even worse deal than we thought.

Freezing police pay to keep bobbies on the beat

There is an urgent need for savings to be made in police forces across the country. Theresa May, Home Secretary, yesterday made an announcement on the how the Government will reform police spending.

The bill for staff makes up three quarters of the overall police budget, so there is almost no option but to make savings in this area.  There are also examples of police being offered extra payments for overtime or bonuses on top of their salaries that don’t seem to offer value for taxpayers’ money (the £450 million a year overtime bill has come under considerable criticism) these payments need to be reviewed too.  The coming review could see the biggest changes to police pay and perks in 30 years.

I debated the issue of police spending reform this morning on BBC Radio Oxford with Graham Smith, chairman of Thames Valley Police Federation.  I brought up an example I’ve heard several times, where four hours of overtime are paid if a policeman picked up his phone once in an evening off. Graham Smith said this was an urban myth, then went on to concede that high ranking officers who took an important call in the night making a decision could then claim four hours of overtime.

The reality is there are examples of over generous deals, where there is a logical argument that money could be better spent. The “grab a grand” bonus mentioned in this video has to reviewed along with all the whole package of perks.  With huge pressures on police force budgets there just isn’t the money for overgenerous arrangements and decisions have to be made on how limited funds can be best channelled towards frontline policing.

During the recession those working in the private sector faced tough decisions.  Many people took pay freezes, were made redundant or they took pay cuts in order to help the companies they worked for stay afloat. It’s a tough position to be in, but for many of my friends it was the only option to save their friends’ and colleagues’ jobs; you do it because you care about the company you work for and its future. We all know that police are dedicated and will want to have enough officers on the frontline.  Policing is different to other private sector jobs, but ultimately those who care about their force know that finding savings and giving up some perks to ensure money is spent more efficiently is crucial.  If that means missing out on a Christmas bonus, police might not be jumping for joy, but it’s the same situation as many taxpayers faced and it’s the right time to practice a bit of restraint.

We all want effective policing and appreciate the protection the force provides us but big savings have to be made in ways which have least impact on frontline policing. The police do a crucial job which involves long shifts and dedication which taxpayers appreciate, but the reality is that compensation designed to reward police for the risks they take are applied to increasing numbers of roles that are well behind the frontline. The overtime and deals negotiated for police who go into dangerous situations shouldn’t be applied to those in pencil-pushing roles. Earlier retirement and pensions deals that apply to non frontline police support staff seem too be given too readily and certainly need reform to bring them into line with what is reasonable and provided in the wider economy. Or course there will be disappointment when deals aren’t so lucrative, but there was disappointment when the age of retirement for those without public sector pensions went from 60 to 69 for women.

Now more than ever there are too many costs and piles of paperwork that decrease police productivity. Too many officers who are primarily in active service still find themselves handcuffed to their desks because of government imposed bureaucracy, we’ve heard from police who find this frustrating. Theresa May has to find ways to offer relief from the additional time consuming processes that have been added to the police workload. Reform has to include reining in bureaucracy. This means listening to common sense and police ideas on how to streamline paperwork. There are too many laborious tasks that don’t add to the quality of policing, the Government must be reassess the burdens they are putting on police time. This is well overdue and is the key to ensuring police productivity can increase to counter the restraints of a more limited budget.

It is more important than ever that taxpayers and police demand that wasteful spending is stopped There are plenty of examples of waste in police spending. I mentioned some stories in an earlier blog, and Matthew Sinclair commented this week on publicity spending in Cumbria, this kind of unnecessary spending is occurring in forces around the country and needs to be stopped. Less silly spending and more austerity can ensure that the police service operates better. Police who notice waste should be encouraged to make suggestions of schemes or spending that should be scrapped before frontline police numbers. If internal processes don’t allow for this then contact the TPA

Public sector pensions need reforming

Over the weekend Baroness Eaton, Chair of the LGA said that local government workers may start to opt out of the Local Government Pension Scheme if they had to up their contributions. Of course, the unions chimed in, with GMB saying that 39 per cent of their members would opt out of it.

But there is simply no other option than to ask local government workers to up their contributions. Yes, with inflation and a hike in VAT, along with a rise in fuel duty, the cost of living is higher for everyone now. During the recession, millions of workers in the private sector lost their jobs, or had their wages cut or frozen. The resulting fiscal crisis, exacerbated by years of overspending, means that spending must be brought under control. We recommended £50 billion worth of savings with the IoD in September 2009 and as part of that package, we said that public sector workers should increase their contributions by a third. This is not as arduous as it seems: it would only raise the typical contribution rates from 6 to 8 per cent of salary.

The pensions given out to those working in local government are generous as they are linked to final salaries, something which is all but extinct in the private sector. Is it likely that local government workers would opt out of this deal? The alternatives in the private sector are nowhere near as good, so perhaps this is the LGA and the unions doing what they do best: scaremongering to try and maintain the status quo for their members.

It was once considered a reasonable part of public sector packages to give generous pensions because of either the lower salaries they were on or the reward for public service. In fact, when we’ve released research on the Local Government Pension Scheme, we’re often told how little lollipop ladies actually get, and that we’re campaigning to take their pensions away. Not at all; executives in local government have hijacked antiquated systems, as have Councillors. But the truth is final salary pensions in their entirety have to come to an end as they are just not affordable, even funded schemes like the LGPS. As we recommended to John Hutton’s pension inquiry, schemes should based on defined contributions, as opposed to defined benefits.

There are other elements of local government pensions that need looking at too. Perhaps the thing that taxpayers find most egregious is executives that double dip. We’ve heard the stories: an executive leaves his or her post on full pension, only to walk into another well paid job in the public sector.

Taxpayers are rightly angry when council workers can retire on a full pension at fifty. True, a lot of these schemes have been reformed so that new entrants can’t take advantage of such ridiculous generosity, but there will still be those that benefit as old schemes taper off.  It is one thing to assume that those working in highly active frontline roles in the police or army are no longer able to continue at 50, but it is quite another and frankly scandalous that someone at a desk job is suddenly less able the day after their 50th birthday to carry on with their tasks. How offensive and wasteful.

The pension gap between the public and private sector needs to be narrowed, the current set up is unsustainable and unfair. Resistance and complaining about less generous packages was always expected, especially from well funded unions (86 million of taxpayers’ money was given to unions last year). But this is a ticking time bomb which needs a solution, so a slight increase in contributions is absolutely reasonable.

HS2 will not have the benefits on other routes that Greengauge 21 claim

We’ve been keeping our supporters abreast of the ongoing debate over the proposal for a new High Speed Rail line, which we pointed out was a Huge Spending Risk in our report on 4 February. To catch up on the debate so far see our last blog.

This week Greengauge21, the pressure group set up to lobby for the project to go ahead, released a new report claiming that HS2 will lead to an improvement in other other routes.  Secretary of State for Transport Phillip Hammond claimed this showed a major benefit to the project.  Those claims do not stand up to scrutiny though.

Bruce Weston from the HS2 Action Alliance has written the following response:

“Greengauge21 have issued a report ‘Capturing the benefits of HS2 on existing lines’, presenting a superficially attractive wish list of improved services everywhere on the existing network.

But this is not a statement of what will happen. The big missing feature is the money to pay for it. We could have more services now – if money were no object. The problem is that additional services – with the costs that go with them – are not affordable, nor in most cases value for money.

Greengauge21 is a pro-high speed rail pressure group, so they don’t discuss funding, or value for money. They will promise the earth, in terms of more and better passenger and freight services, just to make the case for HSR look better. But such promises will only be delivered if the taxpayer picks up the bill – fares already only cover half the cost of the railway, and planning for more subsidy looks even less sensible when it is realised that trains are predominantly used by the better off.

And when would we enjoy these additional services if they were provided? After HS2 is built – that is after 2026 for the first part of HS2, and about 2030 for the Y. This means in at least 20 years time! It is hard to believe that such plans will then look anything other than quaint. Even today, the world is already being transformed by digital communications, and domestic travel is already close to saturation.

Greengauge21 are deeply cynical. They know the country cannot afford the money to create and operate new loss making services. They know that the real effect of HS2 would be to reduce demand on the conventional network, which, in order to avoid spiralling subsidies, would then be cut, as they have been in other countries where high speed lines have been built.”

Chris Stokes, author of the TPA report on High Speed Rail wrote the following in the report:

“In this respect, HS2 represents a trap for the taxpayer: every time a new high speed station is built, there will be demands for major investment, and ongoing subsidy, to deliver the promised regeneration or provide the transport links needed for passengers to access the new service. Euston is the most dramatic case: the Victoria Line is already full – how long before the Mayor explains to the Secretary of State that the additional passengers forecast for HS2 mean that Crossrail 2 has to be built, at a cost of another £10-15 billion.  “A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money”.”

In response to the new Greengauge note, he has written:

“Greengauge21 have been quick off the mark with this. Their latest paper “Capturing the benefits of HS2 on existing lines” promises new and improved services in all directions, but is silent on the issue of the subsidies required to run them. So, for example, there is to be an additional train every hour from Wolverhampton to London via Walsall. It’s not clear where the passengers will come from, as before this Greengauge21 would have told us that HS2 provided massive benefits for Walsall as everyone would be able to drive to the HS2 station at Birmingham Interchange, cutting their journey time in half; now apparently they want to go on trains on the existing route instead, although Greengauge21 have also already said they shouldn’t have cheap fares to do this! And the paper even promises improved services from Harrow to Nuneaton – a true railway enthusiast’s delight!

The wish list of services would require massive continued subsidies, and isn’t realistic or affordable; the evidence in France and in Spain is that, as one would expect, existing parallel routes have their services cut when high speed lines are opened. But Greengauge21 are desperately trying to prevent people realising this so are promising jam tomorrow – or rather in twenty years time, when most of the existing commuters will have long since moved on or retired.

The right strategy is to make sensible and affordable incremental improvements in the next few years, with much earlier benefits at much less cost.”

HS2 or upgrading existing lines? Response to Greengauge21

Following the release of our report, High Speed Rail, High Spending Risk, the debate has begun over the project. We highlighted flaws in the business case and will continue to rebut the excuses given by proponents of spending billions of taxpayers’ money on this white elephant project.

In this post we’ll respond to the latest article by Greengauge21 (the taxpayer funded lobbying group set up to promote high speed rail), from Friday 11th February, considering which is better: HS2 or other rail upgrades.

But first a recap.  So far the ATOC, Department for Transport and Greengauge21 have all responded to our report. If you want to catch up with the debate since we launched it, here are our earlier responses to:

We have had a lot of support as well.  Steve Baker MP recently called our report “incredibly powerful” and his comments were reported in the Bucks Free Press.

To continue that debate, here are responses from Chris Stokes and Bruce Weston to the Greengauge21 article  Which is best – HS2 or rail upgrades?:

Chris Stokes, author of the TPA report and rail expert, has this to say:

“Greengauge21′s recent response is yet again intellectually disreputable. They try to defend a different treatment of rolling stock costs in comparing HS2 with the Department of Transport’s own work on alternatives (capital for HS2, leasing for the alternatives) because they know that on a comparable basis HS2 has a lower benefit cost ratio, and they also continue to suppress the best alternative (Rail package 2) which has a benefit cost ratio of 3.6 against a comparable figure of 2.4 for HS2

In addition, Greengauge21 claim that the limited upgrades proposed under RP2 would be “hugely disruptive”, totally ignoring the fact that the HS2 proposals require a complete, enormously complex reconstruction of Euston station and its rail approaches over several years: this will be much more disruptive than the alternatives, and involves the demolition of a lot of houses as well.

HS2 only makes sense if you believe there will be indefinite compound growth in long distance rail use. This isn’t happening with Eurostar, and the new high speed route in Holland is already in deep financial trouble as volumes are much lower than forecast. Let’s have a rigorous independent review of the business case before this scheme goes anywhere near Parliament.”

Bruce Weston, from the HS2 Action Alliance, responses to Greengauge21 here:

“Greengauge21 have posted a further defence of their contention that HS2 has a good economic case. Unsurprisingly they fail to take on board the points that have been made against HS2.

Greengauge21 return to the assertion that the benefit cost ratio is above the threshold that the DfT set. But this is before account is taken that:

  1. Demand is greatly overestimated (as shown by the Network Rail numbers that Greengauge21 quoted – a conclusion they seem no longer to dispute).
  2. Time saving benefits are greatly overestimated, as business travellers can and are productive on long distance rail trips (despite DfT’s blatantly false assumption that every second is wasted).
  3. If HS2 is compared with a realistic alternative, waiting time and crowding benefits disappear.

Greengauge21 now base the claim that the demand is not overestimated on the projected growth rates being lower than in the previous decade, conveniently ignoring:

  1. That HS2 Ltd’s forecasts are much higher than those made by others, e.g. Network Rail (as previously disputed by Greengauge21).
  2. That the WCML has enjoyed greater improvements to services that those offered by HS2 – and for HS2 an additional uplift in demand is expected that doubles the background growth (which has been repeatedly pointed out to Greengauge21).
  3. That long distance services have benefited from mobile technology greatly improving the usefulness of time on board long distance trains, which reduces the effective cost of the journey to passengers.

It is interesting that Greengauge21 seem to think that stopping projected growth after 2033 is very conservative. HS2 Ltd assume that for every 1 per cent more income, people in Glasgow will spend 2.8 per cent more on rail travel to London. Obviously people spending a higher and higher proportion of their incomes on travel to London could not continue indefinitely, or people in Glasgow would end up spending all their money on going to London by train! And there are good reasons to think that this sort of growth might stop much earlier. Total domestic travel per capital has not been going up at all for the last 15 years.

Greengauge21 defend assessing RP2a (a variant of uprating the WCML) on a different basis from HS2. They reason that it is normal for new rolling stock to be leased in the UK. But to compare one assessment which includes the costs of financing with one that does not biases the assessment. The simple truth is that RP2a is better than HS2 if the same assessment method is used.

Greengauge21 assert that RP2a is ‘by far the the best performing of the rail alternatives to HS2 ‘, but they know this is not true. RP2 is better – with a benefit to cost ratio of 3.63, compared to 2.67 for RP2a and 2.4 for HS2.

They claim that the costs of uprating WCML may prove much higher than estimated. They may well be right, but what of the costs of HS2? RP2 is a series of local improvement schemes (like those successfully implemented on Chiltern Railways), not a decade long major project with a massive potential for over-run.”

We will continue to represent the interests of taxpayers, who will be lumbered with a multi-billion pound bill they can ill afford if this project goes ahead. This is a major scheme which must not be pushed through without rigorous analysis of the business case, which our research shows is very weak.

But who’s policing criminally bad spending?

I have been asked my opinions on two separate stories in the last week that involve the police. Either example could sadly have come from almost any publicly funded body, and even more alarmingly may continue to happen unless there is fundamental change to attitudes and rewards.
The first story is about unnecessary guidance. It was revealed that police forces across the country have spent thousands of pounds worth of taxpayers’ cash to produce an extensive manual on how to ride a bike. It’s important that police officers are well prepared for crime fighting but this guide is a silly waste of time and money. There’s advice to wear lip balm, on how to avoid a sore bottom and “DO NOT PUT YOUR FEET DOWN TO SLOW DOWN YOUR CYCLE.” The Met managed to fill more than three pages with advice on what types of food to eat; lemon curd or Jaffa Cakes but not energy bars, in case you didn’t know. Some of it seems funny, but  years of pointless and wasteful spending is not a laughing matter. Politicians are now talking about how to maintain frontline policing numbers, and frankly that’s where taxpayers want limited funds focused.

The idea of producing a manual centrally was scrapped in 2009 but some forces around the country have gone off and spent time compiling their own. So taxpayers are paying for different teams of people to dream up hundreds of pages of blindingly obvious advice. We have said in the past that local forces should have more responsibility for their own budgets and shouldn’t be at the behest of centralised commands from Whitehall. But that doesn’t mean that ridiculous schemes like this should be closed off from criticism. Because it’s not just the direct cost of producing this pamphlet; officers are expected to waste time reading these patronising tips, using up more time on bureaucracy when they could have been out on the road as a cycling crime fighter. The Daily Telegraph asked “are police really that stupid?” and also said “No wonder the police don’t have the time to catch criminals any more: they’re too busy reading the manual.” Taxpayers want their money spent on bobbies on the beat (or coppers pedalling round the streets) not pointless bureaucracy. It’s a reoccurring problem: back office staff are still dreaming up ways to look busy, rather than focusing on how to improve efficiency so we have better services and value for taxpayers’ money.

I’m not, as one cycling blogger suggested, making a stand against bicycles. I ride a bike regularly, some would say not very well, but even I don’t need someone to tell me I should consider braking when going downhill or what type of knickers to wear. The taxpayer can’t be expected to foot the bill for every whimsical idea that those who are intent on keeping the public sector expensive and unproductive can design. Police forces have to put the brakes on waste like this.

The second example is an article that was written in The Sunday Times about  how the National Policing Improvement Agency spent £400,000 on machine guns. Not every public sector body buys machine guns, but the same procurement mistakes certainly do happen in town halls round the country.
In this story a weapons wholesaler, Law Enforcement International, is suing the publicly funded National Policing Improvement Agency. The LEI says it was not given a chance to compete for the contract which is usually put up for tender; the rules say this must happen to be fair and ensure best value for taxpayers’ money. And when spending almost half a million pounds, getting a discount matters. The quango NPIA admits it rushed the large purchase of weapons, writing in a letter to the Home Office that although the weapons would not be distributed until months later “this was a matter of urgency as the purchase and delivery must be completed by 31st of March.” Funny that, right at the end of the financial year. Bad procurement is rife in the public sector, as we’ve blogged many times before. The good news is this quango will be scrapped, just as we recommended in our book, How to cut spending and still win an election.

The contract should have been put out to tender as required by the rules, because public sector bodies should, in theory, always ensure they buy at the best price and give a chance for competition and ultimately the best deal for the taxpayer. But underneath this arms deal there is something much more sinister. The reality is the desire to get good value simply isn’t there because it’s someone else’s money and quango bosses don’t have the same immediate pressures or consequences as a company or an individual if they overspend. In fact it seems they have a pressure TO overspend, or at least spend all of the budget by the end of the financial year to get a bigger one next year. This is why we often see a mad dash to spend; a supermarket sweep of ill thought out spending decisions, devoid of competition or consideration. This panic buy culture, has evolved to a point where it rewards waste and spending. Public sector managers should be applauded for delivering savings, not looked down upon. The “panic buy season” is an unsustainable haemorrhaging of money that is unsustainable, not in the public’s interest and needs to be addressed.

Day of consequences for MPs’ expenses fraud: Jim Devine found guilty, Eric Illsley sentenced

Former MP Eric Illsley has been sentenced to 12 months in jail for fiddling his parliamentary expenses.

Whilst this will send out a strong message to those who abuse taxpayers’ money, it does not change the fact that Illsley ran for Parliament last year knowing he was guilty and that he could have continued to collect his salary up until his resignation.  Despite calls for him to stand down Illsley waited until the last minute to resign, only doing so on Tuesday- just days before his sentencing. We hear that he has been paid £5,400 of his MPs’ salary since admitting his guilt last month, which he should repay immediately. If he hadn’t agreed to stand down this week, only a 12 month custodial sentence could have removed him from this position and with anything less he could have continued claiming an MPs salary from behind bars!

After the expenses scandal in the summer of 2009, the TPA spoke out for taxpayers who were rightly furious about MPs fiddling their expenses and leaving them to foot the bill. As well as being active critics of the behaviour and attitudes revealed, we continue to campaign for a fully transparent MPs’ expenses system so these abuses of trust cannot happen again.

Reacting to the sentencing of Eric Illsley, Matthew Sinclair, Director of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said:

“It is right that this disgraced criminal has been sent to jail for defrauding the taxpayer, that reflects the gravity of the crime and sends a clear message MPs are not above the law. He should never have stood for re-election if he knew he was guilty all along; that delay will have caused more disruption for constituents and greater costs to the public purse.  It is outrageous that Illsley continued to be entitled to an MP’s salary after admitting his guilt; he should not be able to pocket  more of taxpayers’ money and should pay back any cash that he has received since his conviction.”

Earlier today a jury found former MP Jim Devine guilty of making dishonest claims on his parliamentary expenses.  He was found guilty on three charges of false accounting, totalling over £8,745 and cleared of another count relating to £360. He was MP for Livingston but was barred by Labour from standing again. He claimed in his defence that the false receipts for stationery were actually used to cover staffing costs and made excuses that another MP had told him it was allowed, but the jury did not agree.

Responding to the conviction of Jim Devine, Matthew Sinclair, Director of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said:

“Taxpayers will be relieved that in another expenses case justice has been done. After dismissing the arrogant assertion that they were above the law, the courts have again rejected MPs’ pathetic excuses for false claims. The expenses scandal in the last Parliament dealt a huge blow to public confidence. As proper punishments are handed out to those who broke the rules, and with robust checks and proper transparency in place to stop new abuses, politicians can start to rebuild trust. There now needs to be a strong sentence for Jim Devine, who didn’t plead guilty and has been convicted on multiple counts, to reflect the seriousness of lying to exploit access to taxpayers’ money and establish a proper deterrent.

Today’s decisions follow on from the sentencing of David Chaytor who received an 18 month jail sentence for fraudulently claiming more than £20,000. Last month we watched the trial of Lord Taylor of Warwick, who was found guilty by a jury of swindling the taxpayer out of more than £11,000.

More reactions to our “High Speed Rail – Huge Spending Risk” report still can’t justify HS2 project

Following the release of our detailed report on Friday 4th, “High Speed Rail a Huge Spending Risk,” which pointed out the fundamental flaws in the proposed plans for a multi billion pound train line, a number of organisation have reacted to justify the project: the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), Greengauge 21 and the Department for Transport (DfT).  We posted an initial response to ATOC and Greengauge 21 last week.

Chris Stokes, author of the research note on High Speed Rail who has years of top level experience in the rail industry and as a rail consultant, has provided a further response to an argument made by ATOC, Greengauge 21 and the DfT.  They all argued that the new line is needed to resolve a problem with a lack of capacity:

“Interesting that ATOC, DfT and Greengauge21 have all majored on capacity in their responses. Greengauge21 imply the forecast growth is modest, as West Coast Main Line volumes grew faster in the last ten years, but conveniently forget to mention that the £9 billion upgrade was completed in this period, and the route was transformed from a poorly performing 1960′s railway to give a greatly accelerated and higher frequency service. For example, Manchester – London used to take 2 hours 40 minutes with one train an hour; it now takes 2 hours 8 minutes with a train every twenty minutes. This step change in service quality has transformed the balance between rail and air, and rail now has more than 80 per cent of the market – so the main mode shift has already taken place.

Being long in the tooth, I remember a similar step change in the mid sixties when the route was first electrified, journey times were slashed and frequencies improved. But after three/four years of rapid growth, rail volumes flattened out for many years. Is it really realistic to assume that we will see continued compound growth on the route year on year? It’s not happening on other high speed railways elsewhere in the world, where markets have become saturated.

Given the scale of capital expenditure proposed, and the central importance of the volume forecasts to the case, how about an independent review of this issue, rather than relying on a point forecast by HS2 Ltd which is getting on for double everyone else’s forecasts?”

In an article in the Independent titled “Report calls for £17bn rail link to be scrapped”, the DfT disagreed with the findings in the report. Bruce Weston from the HS2 Action Alliance responded to their comments:

“According to the Independent, a DfT spokesman has rebuffed TPA’s claims, saying:

    ‘This will not be ‘a railway for the rich’. We have modelled on the basis that the line will have the same fares structure as the existing railway.’

The point is that if HS2 has the same customer base as the existing railway it will be a railway for the rich. The government’s own survey data (NTS) shows nearly half of long distance rail journeys are made by people from the top 20 per cent of households by income. Obviously if HS2 proves in reality to be a premium fares railway (as most people expect) it will be even more so. Why does the government think that the largely affluent group who use trains for long distance travel merit a subsidy which everyone must pay for, despite the cuts being suffered?

No one is suggesting that nothing is done. The point is that there are cheaper, better value and more quickly implementable alternatives – developed by DfT – that involve improving existing infrastructure. They are what need to be done – not a grandiose and massively loss making project that will do nothing to address capacity issues until 2026 at the earliest.

The spokesman also said:

    ‘Intercity rail travel has risen sharply in recent years. Already some of our key rail arteries are close to capacity, so doing nothing is simply not an option.’

According to the spokesman, it is all justified by the

    ‘massive economic benefits.’

But the problem is that these benefits don’t exist. The economic case rests on false assumptions like business travellers don’t work on trains, and demand projections that repeat the errors of HS1. And no foundation has yet been offered for the claims that it will ‘reshape Britain’s economic geography’. It should be remembered that HS2 Ltd reviewed the evidence, taking top academic advice, and published their views on this in March 2010. Not only did HS2 Ltd make no such claims, but identified Old Oak Common (in London) as the best regeneration opportunity!”

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