The 75 Conservative MPs who opposed the Prime Minister’s deal

Mostly ERG-aligned Leavers – but roughly ten former Remainers, a core of whom now back a second referendum.

The ERG has roughly 80 supporters.  Despite some defections around the edges, this looks at first glance like a pretty unified ERG vote – since some of the 39 Conservative “defectors” are not associated with the group.

But please note that at least eleven of the rebels were Remainers, not Leavers: Guto Bebb, Damian Collins, Charlie Elphicke, Michael Fallon, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Sam Gyimah, Jo Johnson, Phillip Lee, Grant Shapps and Shailesh Vara.  Bebb, Collins, Greening, Grieve, Gyimah and Johnson Lee are Second Referendum supporters.

We have used Mark Harper’s photo for this piece because the former Chief Whip is an important centre-right bellweather.  He set out his reasoning earlier today.

  • Adam Afriyie
  • Lucy Allan
  • Richard Bacon
  • Steve Baker
  • John Baron
  • Guto Bebb
  • Crispin Blunt
  • Peter Bone
  • Suella Braverman
  • Andrew Bridgen

 

  • Conor Burns
  • William Cash
  • Rehman Chishti
  • Christopher Chope
  • Simon Clarke
  • Damian Collins
  • Robert Courts
  • Richard Drax
  • James Duddridge
  • Iain Duncan Smith

 

  • Charlie Elphicke
  • Michael Fabricant
  • Sir Michael Fallon
  • Mark Francois
  • Marcus Fysh
  • James Gray
  • Chris Green
  • Justine Greening
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Sam Gyimah

 

  • Mark Harper
  • Gordon Henderson
  • Philip Hollobone
  • Adam Holloway
  • Eddie Hughes
  • Ranil Jayawardena
  • Bernard Jenkin
  • Andrea Jenkyns
  • Boris Johnson
  • Gareth Johnson

 

  • Jo Johnson
  • David Jones
  • Daniel Kawczynski
  • Pauline Latham
  • Phillip Lee
  • Andrew Lewer
  • Julian Lewis
  • Ian Liddell-Grainger
  • Julia Lopez
  • Jonathan Lord

 

  • Craig Mackinlay
  • Anne Main
  • Esther McVey
  • Anne Marie Morris
  • Sheryll Murray
  • Priti Patel
  • Owen Paterson
  • Tom Pursglove
  • Dominic Raab
  • John Redwood

 

  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • Laurence Robertson
  • Andrew Rosindell
  • Lee Rowley
  • Grant Shapps
  • Henry Smith
  • Royston Smith
  • Bob Stewart
  • Ross Thomson
  • Michael Tomlinson

 

  • Craig Tracey
  • Anne-Marie Trevelyan
  • Shailesh Vara
  • Theresa Villiers
  • John Whittingdale

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Iain Dale: Brexit Derangement Syndrome breaks out everywhere. Adonis, Bridgen – and now, alas, Boles. Everyone’s going bonkers.

Plus: Which of Hancock’s Slags should I liaise with? I’m not known as “Uncle Herod” for nothing. And: Here’s hoping 2019 is happier than 2018.

Iain Dale is Presenter of LBC Drive, Managing Director of Biteback Publishing, a columnist and broadcaster and a former Conservative Parliamentary candidate.

In my role as a Brexit doctor, I have diagnosed various politicians and commentators with Brexit Derangement Syndrome. It predominantly affects ultra-Remainers. The symptoms are to lose all sense of perspective and say and tweet rather mad things.

Andrew Adonis has it worse, closely followed by Alastair Campbell, Sarah Wollaston and Anna Soubry.

On the Brexit side Andrew Bridgen also suffers from it, and Jacob Rees-Mogg showed signs of symptoms after the vote of confidence in Theresa May, although he seems to have recovered since.

Unfortunately, my good friend Nick Boles has seemingly now contracted it. See above for what he tweeted on Tuesday.

Consider me astonished. Nick isn’t given to rushes of blood to the head, but this was an extraordinary tweet. It’s the sort of view that in normal circumstances an MP would make known to his whip, before the Chief Whip then invites him in for a meeting without coffee.

Either the whipping system is breaking down or Nick’s agenda is to encourage other Conservative MPs to follow his lead as part of a concerted public campaign to ensure No Deal. No one was surprised when Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston indicated that they would do the same thing.

On the same day, another sufferer of Brexit Derangement Syndrome, Chris Patten, described ERG Brexiteers as “Maoists” and “rodents”. Philip Hammond described them as “extremists”. Pot, kettle and black and three words which apply here.

Just image the outcry from hardline Remainers if members of the ERG used that kind of language about them, or threatened to resign the Conservative whip in the event of Article 50 being extended. They would quite rightly question the Conservative credentials of anyone who did this.

This is a time for cool heads. All 317 Conservative MPs are going to have to work together once this is all over (if it ever is) and they should all remember that careless talk costs votes and seats.

Having said that, I might as well save my breath because no one is in the mood to listen or compromise. Both sides are utterly convinced that they are right and that the other is motivated by warped beliefs. How very sad.

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In 25 days’ time. the meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal is finally due to be held.

That’s 25 days for the Prime Minister to come up with something to persuade both the DUP and the minimum of 71 Conservative MPs who’ve publicly opposed it.

On the face of it, it looks like a thankless task. But I just wonder… I believe that she thinks it’s still possible to win. I also sense that things are starting to move in her direction. I’ve lost count of the number of Conservative MPs who’ve told me that their Party members and constituents just want them to get on with it and support the Prime Minister.

The key is for her to drag a concession out of the EU, even at the last minute, which she can sell to Arlene Foster. If Foster can bring herself to support the deal, you’d have to expect most Conservative rebels to fall into line, surely? The trouble is that the Prime Minister needs practically every single one to, and whether that’s achievable is a very moot point indeed.

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The peril of the iPhone autocorrect are a delight to behold. I was texting Matt Hancock the other day trying to arrange an interview for the New Year. I asked him “Which of your multifarious Spads should I liaise with?”

Unfortunately, I hadn’t noticed that what I actually sent him was this: “Which of your multifarious Slags should I liaise with?” His reply? “Jamie – he ain’t no slag!”.

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I don’t feel at all Christmassy. I hope that changes in the next few days, but I’m not sure it will. The older one gets, and the further away from your childhood you get, it just doesn’t feel the same anymore.

Given that I don’t have kids, I suppose that’s not surprising. However, I will get to spend this Christmas Day with a friend of ours and his two year old. Wish me luck. I’m not known as Uncle Herod for nothing…

I hope you all have a very happy Christmas and that 2019 brings you all that you wish for. 2018 has been a pretty ugly year one way or another. My fear is that 2019 will make 2018 look like a halcyon era…

On that happy note, I bid you farewell until January 11th.

Iain Dale: It’s going to be a White Christmas – because there are snowflakes, snowflakes everywhere.

Plus: Tory MPs, the world’s most duplicitous electorate. But a certain long-serving woman Labour MP is sending Christmas cards to them all…

Iain Dale is Presenter of LBC Drive, Managing Director of Biteback Publishing, a columnist and broadcaster and a former Conservative Parliamentary candidate.

I was surprised by the fact that 117 MPs voted against the Prime Minister on Wednesday – and can’t pretend otherwise. I had thought that the total would be between 80 and 100.

What fascinates me is that there were no ministerial resignations in the runup to the vote. No one will ever convince me that all 95 Government ministers and the various PPSs voted for Theresa May to stay on. I can think of at least two Cabinet members who I would lay money voted against her. Surely any minister who did that would be honour bound to resign?

Apparently not. No wonder the Parliamentary Conservative Party is known as the world’s most duplicitous electorate.

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I interviewed Jacob Rees-Mogg three quarters of an hour after Graham Brady had announced the result of the ballot. I was rather taken aback by his responses to my various questions. He wasn’t exactly bad-tempered, but he certainly came across as a bad loser. When I put that to him, he was having none of it – but continued to call on the Prime Minister to resign. It was quite extraordinary.

I have sympathy with many of his views on the subject of the Withdrawal Agreement, but there is no future in being an ‘irreconcilable’. Andrew Bridgen gave a similar response, and it is clear that loyalty is a word which has become alien to both of them. It is supposed to be the Tories’ secret weapon. You could have fooled me.

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Nicky Morgan hit the nail on the head when she said on Peston: “[May] has to realize there are some on our backbenches who are irreconcilable to either having any deal or having anything like the deal that’s on the table.” It’s difficult to see how the Prime Minister can convince the 71 MPs who declared that they would not support her in the meaningful vote that was planned this week to change their minds.  Particularly after her rebuff in Brussels, as reported this morning.

She could possibly convince some of them but it still wouldn’t get it over the line. So what are the alternatives? Norway Plus? A second referendum? It ought to be leaving with what I like to call a ‘clean break’ rather than ‘no deal’, but Parliament will do its level best to frustrate it, even though it passed the legislation which guarantees it.

Quite what happens next is anyone’s guess. Unfortunately, I can see Article 50 being postponed, but all that would achieve is to kick the can down the road again. But the Prime Minister has become a master of that particular art.

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It is the season of goodwill to all men. And women. And Conservative MPs. Harriet Harman has certainly contracted the Christmas spirit very early. She’s so full of goodwill to Conservatives that she’s sending them Christmas cards. All of them apparently. What can it mean?

Well, perhaps that this long-serving Labour MP wishes to curry favour with Conservative MPs should there be an election to succeed John Bercow as Speaker of the Commons.

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About a month ago, someone suggested to me that I should send out a weekly email newsletter to people who were interested in my various activities. Hmmm, I thought, would anyone be interested? I then signed up to Mailchimp and have now sent out a newsletter on a Sunday evening for the last three weeks. People seem to like it, so if you’d like to sign up just visit http://www.iaindale.com and sign up via the pop-up. You can unsubscribe at any time if I bore you to tears.

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A friend of mine is a comedian, originally from Russia. And there aren’t many of them to the pound. Konstantin Kisin is his name. Last week, he pulled out of doing a comedy gig at a university after being asked to sign a ‘behavioural contract’. This ‘contract forbade him from telling jokes which could be considered anti-religion, anti-atheist, homophobic, transphobic, bi-phobic, misogynistic … and so the list went on. This is apparently increasingly happening on university campuses, supposedly the bastions of free speech.

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On a similar but unrelated note, I was waiting for a train at Tonbridge station on Wednesday when I overheard a teacher talking to five girl pupils about their trip to the Commons. Their visit was to support Amnesty International’s human rights day. They were meeting John Bercow and various MPs together with their local MP, Tom Tugendhat.

I suggested to the teacher that while they were there she should take the girls across the road to College Green where they could see the huge media presence covering the possible fall of a Prime Minister. Her response astounded me: “Yes, I was thinking of doing that, but I don’t want to cause them any stress.” Jesus wept. Is that what we’ve really come to – where the first thought of a teacher when considering doing anything is will it cause stress? No wonder we’re rearing a generation of politically correct snowflakes.

How MPs say they will vote in today’s confidence ballot

We currently have it at 151 declared for May, versus the 29 who publicly filed no confidence letters.

We’re still counting, but this is our running total for how MPs have declared on tonight’s confidence vote. Divide seems to be between public support for the Prime Minister on the one hand, and radio silence on the other.

In order to get a reliable figure we are checking each Conservative MP, and only including those who have tweeted or retweeted their position or had it confirmed by the press.

For:

  • Bim Afolami
  • Adam Afriyie
  • Peter Aldous
  • Heidi Allen
  • Stuart Andrew (5)
  • Victoria Atkins
  • Kemi Badenoch
  • Harriet Baldwin
  • Steve Barclay
  • Henry Bellingham (10)
  • Richard Benyon
  • Jake Berry
  • Nick Boles
  • Peter Bottomley
  • Andrew Bowie
  • Robert Buckland (15)
  • Karen Bradley
  • Jack Brereton
  • Steve Brine
  • James Brokenshire
  • Alex Burghart
  • Alistair Burt (20)
  • Alun Cairns
  • James Cartlidge
  • Alex Chalk
  • Jo Churchill
  • Colin Clark (25)
  • Greg Clark
  • Ken Clarke
  • James Cleverly
  • Thérèse Coffey
  • Alberto Costa (30)
  • Geoffrey Cox
  • Stephen Crabb
  • Glyn Davies
  • Mims Davies
  • Caroline Dinenage
  • Jonathan Djanogly (35)
  • Leo Docherty
  • Michelle Donelan
  • Oliver Dowden
  • Jackie Doyle-Price
  • David Duguid
  • Alan Duncan (40)
  • Michael Ellis
  • Tobias Ellwood
  • Graham Evans
  • Vicky Ford
  • Kevin Foster (45)
  • Liam Fox
  • Lucy Frazer
  • George Freeman
  • Mike Freer
  • Roger Gale
  • David Gauke (50)
  • Nusrat Ghani
  • Nick Gibb
  • John Glen
  • Robert Goodwill
  • Michael Gove (55)
  • Luke Graham
  • Richard Graham
  • Bill Grant
  • Helen Grant
  • Chris Grayling
  • Damian Green
  • Kirstene Hair
  • Rob Halfon (60)
  • Luke Hall
  • Philip Hammond
  • Stephen Hammond
  • Matt Hancock (65)
  • Richard Harrington
  • Trudy Harrison
  • Simon Hart
  • Oliver Heald
  • James Heappey (70)
  • Chris Heaton-Harris
  • Peter Heaton-Jones
  • Gordon Henderson
  • Nick Herbert
  • Damian Hinds (75)
  • Simon Hoare
  • George Hollingberry
  • Kevin Hollinrake
  • John Howell
  • Nigel Huddleston (80)
  • Jeremy Hunt
  • Nick Hurd
  • Alister Jack
  • Margot James
  • Sajid Javid
  • Robert Jenrick (85)
  • Caroline Johnson
  • Gareth Johnson
  • Andrew Jones
  • Marcus Jones
  • Seema Kennedy
  • Stephen Kerr (90)
  • Julian Knight
  • John Lamont
  • Mark Lancaster
  • Andrea Leadsom
  • Phillip Lee
  • Jeremy Lefroy (95)
  • Oliver Letwin
  • Brandon Lewis
  • David Lidington
  • Jack Lopresti
  • Rachel Maclean (100)
  • Kit Malthouse
  • Alan Mak
  • Paul Masterton
  • Patrick McLoughlin
  • Huw Merriman
  • Maria Miller (105)
  • Amanda Milling
  • Penny Mordaunt
  • Wendy Morton
  • David Morris
  • David Mundell
  • Andrew Murrison (110)
  • Bob Neill
  • Sarah Newton
  • Caroline Nokes
  • Jesse Norman
  • Neil O’Brien
  • Guy Opperman (115)
  • Mark Pawsey
  • John Penrose
  • Claire Perry
  • Victoria Prentis
  • Rebecca Pow (120)
  • Amber Rudd
  • Mary Robinson
  • Antoinette Sandbach
  • Paul Scully
  • Bob Seely (125)
  • Alok Sharma
  • Alec Shelbrooke
  • Keith Simpson
  • Chris Skidmore
  • Julian Smith (130)
  • Nicholas Soames
  • Anna Soubry
  • Caroline Spelman
  • Gary Streeter
  • Mark Spencer (135)
  • Andrew Stephenson
  • Rory Stewart
  • Mel Stride
  • Maggie Throup
  • Kelly Tolhurst (140)
  • Justin Tomlinson
  • Liz Truss
  • Tom Tugendhat
  • Ed Vaizey
  • David Warburton (145)
  • Robin Walker
  • Matt Warman
  • Helen Whately
  • Craig Whittaker
  • Gavin Williamson (150)
  • Sarah Wollaston
  • Nadhim Zahawi

Against:

  • Steve Baker
  • Crispin Blunt
  • Peter Bone
  • Ben Bradley
  • Andrew Bridgen (5)
  • Bill Cash
  • Maria Caulfield
  • Simon Clarke
  • Philip Davies
  • Nadine Dorries (10)
  • James Duddridge
  • Mark Francois
  • Marcus Fysh
  • Zac Goldsmith
  • Chris Green (15)
  • Adam Holloway
  • Philip Hollobone
  • Andrea Jenkyns
  • David Jones
  • Andrew Lewer (20)
  • Anne Marie Morris
  • Sheryll Murray
  • Owen Paterson
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • Laurence Robertson (25)
  • Lee Rowley
  • Henry Smith
  • Martin Vickers
  • John Whittingdale (29)

Undeclared:

  • Nigel Adams
  • Lucy Allan
  • David Amess
  • Edward Argar
  • Richard Bacon (5)
  • John Baron
  • Guto Bebb
  • Paul Beresford
  • Bob Blackman
  • Graham Brady (10)
  • Suella Braverman
  • Fiona Bruce
  • Conor Burns
  • Rehman Chishti
  • Christopher Chope (15)
  • Damian Collins
  • Robert Courts
  • Tracey Crouch
  • Chris Davies
  • David TC Davies (20)
  • David Davis
  • Steve Double
  • Richard Drax
  • Ian Duncan Smith
  • Philip Dunne (25)
  • George Eustace
  • Nigel Evans
  • David Evennett
  • Michael Fabricant
  • Michael Fallon (30)
  • Mark Field
  • Mark Garnier
  • Cheryl Gillan
  • James Gray
  • Justine Greening (35)
  • Dominic Grieve
  • Sam Gyimah
  • Greg Hands
  • Mark Harper
  • Rebecca Harris (40)
  • John Hayes
  • Eddie Hughes
  • Ranil Jayawardena
  • Edward Leigh
  • Scott Mann (45)
  • Douglas Ross
  • Derek Thomas
  • Ross Thomson