Here are the results of a Next Tory Leader poll published by YouGov placed side to side with those from this site’s survey member panel in January.
Don’t know: YouGov 23 per cent. ConHome n/a.
Ben Wallace: YouGov 12 per cent. ConHome n/a.
Liz Truss: YouGov 11 per cent. ConHome 20 per cent.
Jeremy Hunt: YouGov: 10 per cent. ConHome 9 per cent.
Penny Mordaunt: YouGov: 8 per cent. ConHome 13 per cent.
Rishi Sunak: YouGov: 7 per cent. ConHome 18 per cent.
Michael Gove: YouGov: 7 per cent. 4 per cent.
Priti Patel: YouGov: 6 per cent. ConHome: 1 per cent
Tom Tugendhat: YouGov: 5 per cent. ConHome: 7 per cent.
Nadhim Zahawi: YouGov: 5 per cent. ConHome: 4 per cent.
- We neither provided a don’t know category nor the same list as YouGov: additionally, we had Kemi Badenoch, Steve Baker, Graham Brady, Mark Harper, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab and Anne-Marie Trevelyan. We didn’t offer Ben Wallace – currently top of our Cabinet League Table.
- Water has passed under and indeed over the bridge since January: Truss no longer tops our table, for example. Sunak’s Spring Statement wasn’t well received and the non-dom controversy has taken place. Patel has announced the Rwanda illegal immigration policy.
- The provision of a don’t know category by YouGov highlights what our survey suggested. Truss tops both polls, but with only a fifth of the vote in our survey, what Ben Walker of the New Statesman writes about YouGov’s poll also applies to ours: “when you collate the views of Tory party members, you find no one stands out”.
- Note too the similarity of the long tail – indeed, the YouGov poll results for individuals are arguably a form of long tail from the don’t knows. Our Mordaunt score was double YouGov’s, but at 13 per cent in the latter she wasn’t lighting many fires. Essentially, both surveys have a mass of people in not dissimilar individual figures.
- YouGov also produced a poll of 506 Tory members on Monday which asked:” “do you think it was right or wrong for Conservative MPs to submit letters of no confidence in Boris Johnson to the 1922 committee?
- We asked the panel whether the view that Conservative MPs should remove him as Tory leader was closer to theirs than that they shouldn’t. We got over a thousand replies. I think it’s fair to say that the two questions are roughly comparable.
- YouGov said the MPs were wrong to do so by 53 per cent to 42 per cent. The panel said that they would be right to remove him by 55 per cent to 41 per cent: almost a mirror image.
- Incidentally, the return to the survey from the panel last month for the same question was: 41 per cent and 53 per cent – almost exactly the same result as YouGov’s poll this week.
- YouGov is a proper opinion poll and ours is a self-selecting survey – albeit one that got Johnson’s eve-of-ballot return to within a single point, which helps to explain why it gets picked up by other media.
- But you will see that the two are in the same broad territory even allowing for six months’ or so difference: big blocks within the party for and against Johnson staying as leader; no decisive view on who any replacement should be.
- If you want to join the panel, please send a copy of your membership certificate or other evidence of membership to firstname.lastname@example.org and you will be added. It’s not hard to do and each addition helps to make the survey more representative.
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