Brexit Party Allocated Just One Minute in Three Hour European Parliament Brexit ‘Debate’

From 9am -12pm next Wednesday the European Parliament will hold a big debate on the Brexit process. Curiously, the largest party in the Parliament has been allocated just one minute of the three hours of speaking time, despite making up 4% of all MEPs, and the debate being about the literal namesake of their party. Guido doubts it will be worth watching this 99.5% Remoaning winge-a-thon…

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Scargill Calls for the Left to Oppose Remain MPs

Former leader of the National Union of Mineworkers, Arthur Scargill, has called on all socialists to oppose any Labour MPs wanting to stay in the European Union. Good old traditional Labour…

Scargill proffered his Brexit call to arms at a meeting of the left-wing Brexit Group, Leave Fight Transform (LeFT), saying “every single MP who wants us to go back into Europe should be opposed… that is my view, as a socialist, as a Marxist”. 

Scargill went even further, criticising his former comrade, Jeremy Corbyn, for his Brexit u-turn from opposing the Lisbon Treaty to now creating a pro-EU Labour Party that is “indistinguishable from the 21 MPs who have left the Tory Party”. This will be an easy point for Boris to score at the next PMQs…

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Northern Irish High Court Rules Hard Brexit Does Not Break Belfast Agreement

Yesterday’s pro-Brexit ruling in Northern Ireland thoroughly dismissed a Remainer case attempting to make No Deal illegal – by arguing it would damage the Northern Ireland peace process. In his judgement Lord Justice McCloskey thoroughly slapped down the spurious arguments that the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement hinges on membership of the European Union, or even regulatory alignment with it…

“Neither NIA 1998 nor the international treaty scheduled to the Belfast Agreement (or, for that matter, the Agreement itself) has the effect in law of requiring the continued membership of the EU on the part of the UK.

The Supreme Court was alert to this in Miller: see [129]. Furthermore, none of the sources mentioned subjects the EU 27 to conclude an Article 50 Withdrawal Agreement in any particular terms.”

“Once again, neither the Belfast Agreement nor this suite of provisions was predicated on the basis that UK membership of the EU would continue forever. Neither of them can be construed as requiring a customs Union or continued regulatory alignment. More fundamentally, there is no sufficient evidential foundation for the incompatibility asserted. There is no suggestion that the incompatibility has already materialised”

This expert ruling will come as sad news to some of Guido’s Remoaner friends, who have repeatedly, erroneously, argued that it does:

The man who tells us all ‘How To Be Right’ getting it wrong…

Maybe stick to comedy mate…

Spoken with such confidence, just a shame its completely inaccurate

The Twitter Lawyer is wrong again. Awkward…

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Bercow Compares No Deal Brexit to ‘Robbing a Bank’

John Bercow delivered a highly politically charged speech at last night’s Bingham Lecture, particularly hitting out at Brexiteers, and ignoring his own flagrant disregard for the constitution. The supposedly impartial speaker took the opportunity to declare that he supports written constitution, and even ad-libbed from his script to actually compare the Prime Minister to a knife-wielding street gang member. A new Speaker can’t come soon enough…

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Government Advertises Brexit on Remainer Podcast

The Remaniacs Podcast has reacted with fury after discovering the Government’s ‘prepare for Brexit’ ads are being broadcast in front of the latest episode.

They’ll still be getting a tidy sum from the taxpayer however…

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ECB Turns on QE Taps at an Open Ended €20 Billion Every Month

The Euro has fallen sharply against the pound as a result of a sweeping host of measures from the European Central Bank aimed at stimulating the ailing Eurozone economy. The bank today announced a 10 bps rate cut, aggressive forward guidance, and open ended quantitative easing at €20 billion every month. With panicky measures like this, the last thing the Eurozone needs now is a No Deal Brexit…

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Carole’s Short of Logic on “Brexit Disaster Capitalism”

In the wilder corners of Twitter, the remainiacs have a meta-conspiracy theory they call “Brexit Disaster Capitalism”, it has a number of components and is based on some far-fetched premises;

  • Brexit will be a disaster and lead to economic collapse.
  • Prominent rich Brexiteers know this, they intend to profit from it by selling short stocks high to buy back low after the disaster.
  • City tycoons and hedge fund managers financed the Brexit campaign to bring about the collapse from which they will profit massively whilst the rest of us suffer.

The fact that Jacob Rees-Mogg, for example, has an interest in a fund management firm is cited as proof. The latest incarnation and attempt to shore up the theory is based on the publicly-disclosed short interests of various fund managers who have given money to the Tories, Vote Leave or Boris Johnson’s campaigns. Carole Cadwalladr tweeted last night that they have aggregate short positions of some £4,563,350,000. Four and a half billion quid of shorts by Brexit-backing fund managers sounds like a huge amount. Except it isn’t in relative terms.

The UK stock market is capitalised at over £4 trillion, so that aggregate short position is equivalent to something like a tenth of 1% of the market. Nothing unusual. Long/short funds usually trade stock pairs, so the funds most likely won’t even be that short in net terms because a fund goes short one stock and hedges the position long another stock (hence the term “hedge* fund”). The profit (or loss) is from the difference in the stocks’ relative performances.

More obviously, these funds are overall net long the market, if these rapacious plutocrats were betting on disaster, why would they be positioned to profit massively when the broad stock market went up and lose when it went down? Publicly available data, for example, shows that the prominent Brexiteer donor Paul Marshall’s firm has £1.3 billion in short positions on the UK stock market. His firm manages some £30 billion of assets. Which suggests he is in reality geared to profit far more from rising than falling stock markets.

Incidentally, if the fund managers had been short since referendum night they would have lost their fortunes, given the FTSE is up over a 1000 points since the referendum. The whole “Brexit Disaster Capitalism” conspiracy theory does not make sense even if you accept the premise that the Brexit will be a disaster. The hedge fund managers are long the market in the expectation stocks will continue to rise…

*The hedge might also be against derivatives or the relevant market index. To go short without hedge is to be nakedly short. A brave trade.

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Tory MPs’ People’s Vote Campaign No Longer Contains Any Tories

The second referendum campaign for Tory MPs, Right to Vote, set up by Phillip Lee, no longer contains a single Tory MP among their ranks, following multiple defections, resignations and withdrawals of the whip by the Government. Coincidentally the website and campaign have since folded…

At its height, the group contained 10 Tory MPs in its fold, however, following a record number of MPs changing party, the supposedly Conservative campaign is now led by a Lib Dem and counts four independents, one ‘The Independents’ MP and one ‘The Independent Group for Change’ MP among others. Keeping up?

The only sign the group was ever Tory-affiliated is the two remaining Tory Lords, who will be grateful that Boris said he wouldn’t withdraw the whip from any Lords supporting the Surrender Bill. A good demonstration of the change seen in British politics over the last year.

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Geoff Norcott on “the Coup”

Guido was at Comedy Unleashed last night and saw Geoff’s full set where he tried out some new material for his upcoming tour. Comedy Unleashed are trying something new and risking going to both the Labour and Tory Conferences. Well worth checking out:

You won’t regret it..

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UK Agrees Post-Brexit Trade Deals With Six More Countries

This week the UK reached agreements with South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Eswatini and Mozambique for trade continuity after Brexit, ensuring deals will signed worth £10 billion to the UK economy.

These new countries mean that Liz Truss’ Department for International Trade has reached agreements in the last few months with 44 countries and the Palestinian authority. Guido brings you the full, ever growing list along with their population and GDP here…

  1. Antigua and Barbuda 102,012 1.532 billion
  2. Bahamas 395,361 12.16 billion
  3. Barbados 285,719  4.797 billion
  4. Belize 374,681 1.838 billion
  5. Botswana 2.292 million 17.41 billion
  6. Chile 18.95 million 277.1 billion
  7. Colombia 49.07 million 309.2 billion
  8. Costa Rica 4.906 million 57.06 billion
  9. Dominica 73,925 562.5 million 
  10. Dominican Republic 10.77 million 75.93 billion
  11. Ecuador 16.62 million 103.1 billion
  12. El Salvador 6.378 million 24.81 billion
  13. Eswatini 1.367 million 4.409 billion
  14. Faroe Islands 49,290 2.477 billion
  15. Fiji 905,502 5.061 billion
  16. Grenada 107,825 1.119 billion
  17. Guatemala 16.91 million 75.62 billion
  18. Guyana 777,859 3.676 billion
  19. Haiti 10.98 million 8.408 billion
  20. Honduras 9.265 million 22.98 billion
  21. Iceland 338,349 23.91 billion
  22. Israel 8.712 million 350.9 billion 
  23. Jamaica 2.89 million 14.77 billion
  24. Korea 51.47 million 1.531 trillion
  25. Lesotho 2.233 million 2.639 billion
  26. Lichenstein 37,810 6.289 billion
  27. Madagascar 25.57 million 11.5 billion
  28. Mauritius 1.265 million 13.34 billion
  29. Mozambique 29.67 million 12.33 billion
  30. Namibia 2.534 million 13.24 billion
  31. Nicaragua 6.218 million 13.81 billion
  32. Norway 5.258 million 398.8 billion
  33. Palestinian Authority 4.817 million 15 billion
  34. Panama 4.099 million 61.84 billion
  35. Papua New Guinea 8.251 million 21.09 billion 
  36. Peru 32.17 million 211.4 billion
  37. Seychelles 95,843 1.486 billion
  38. South Africa 56.72 million 349.4 billion
  39. St Kitts and Nevis 55,345 945.9 million
  40. St Lucia 178,844 1.712 billion
  41. St Vincent and the Grenadines 109,897 789.6 million
  42. Suriname 563,402 3.324 billion
  43. Switzerland 8.42 million 678.9 billion
  44. Trinidad and Tobago 1.369 million 22.1 billion
  45. Zimbabwe 16.53 million 17.85 billion

Remainers said the UK would never sign these deals by Brexit day. DIT is pretty rapidly proving them wrong…

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Corbyn Gives Up on Having a Brexit Policy

After 3 years of dithering, u-turning and total confusion, last night Jeremy Corbyn finally gave up on trying to assert a Brexit policy on the Labour Party. He conceded to offering his cabinet a free vote in a second referendum should they win power…

Corbyn will also allow his MPs to campaign on either side of his proposed referendum – granting a huge choice between remaining, and staying in the customs union and regulatory orbit of the single market.

The move comes after Emily Thornberry’s excruciating Question Time appearance last week, where she had to explain with a straight face that if Labour came to power she would help negotiate a new deal with the EU, then campaign against it to stay in.

Meanwhile, deputy party leader Tom Watson has come up with yet another excuse to vote against a general election – saying there should be a second referendum beforehand. Maybe the new strategy is to make Britons so exhausted with as many votes as possible that they don’t notice Labour’s spinelessness…

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Magners: Now is a Good Time to Switch to Britain

Irish cider and beer maker C&C Group, whose brands include Magners and Bulmers ciders as well as Tennants lager, said it will seek admission to London’s FTSE and discontinue its Irish stock market listing, simultaneously switching its financial reporting from euros to sterling from October 7, the company announced this morning. The company will cancel its listing in Dublin, despite Brexit…

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Leave Beat the SNP in Half of Their Westminster Seats

The SNP love going on about how more Remain votes than Leave votes came from Scotland in the United Kingdom’s EU referendum. They don’t like mentioning that more than a million Scots voted to leave, or the fact that if you disregard the Leave votes from Scotland and Northern Ireland, Remain would have won. Guido has compiled some data that might offer the Scot Nats a reason to think again about ignoring the sizeable contingent of Scottish Brexiteers…

In half of the SNPs 35 seats, the Leave percentage outweighed the SNP vote share in the 2017 election. The SNP MPs who have cause to be worried are:

  • Kirsty Blackman Aberdeen North 41.3 SNP 43.09 Leave
  • Neil Gray Airdrie and Shotts 37.6 SNP 39.84 Leave
  • Brendan O’Hara Argyll and Bute 36 SNP  39.43 Leave
  • Phillipa Whitford Central Ayrshire 37.2 SNP 41.62 Leave
  • Douglas Chapman Dunfermline and West Fife 35.5 SNP 39.39 Leave
  • John McNally Falkirk 38.9 SNP 43.2 Leave
  • David Linden Glasgow East 38.8 SNP 43.84 Leave
  • Chris Stephens Glasgow South West 40.7 SNP 40.86 Leave
  • Peter Grant Glenrothes 42.8 SNP 47.61 Leave
  • Drew Hendry Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey 39.9 SNP 40.13 Leave
  • Angela Crawley Lanark and Hamilton East 32.6 SNP 35.96 Leave
  • Martyn Day Linlithgow and East Falkirk 36.3 SNP 42.02 Leave
  • Hannah Bardell Livingston 40.1 SNP 43.26 Leave
  • Angus MacNeil Na h-Eileanan an Iar 40.6 SNP 43.9 Leave
  • Patricia Gibson North Ayrshire and Arran 38.9 SNP 42.4 Leave
  • Stephen Gethins North East Fife 32.9 SNP 41.4 Leave (Fife only stats available)
  • Ian Blackford Ross, Skye & Lochaber 40.3 SNP 43.49 Leave

The Tories becoming the Leave Party might not be such a bad move in Scotland after all…

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EU Commission Wants to ‘Protect Our European Way of Life’

The EU has announced the planned structure of Ursula von der Leyen’s forthcoming Commission, with a new college of eight ‘vice-presidents’. A whole swathe of new bureaucrats to be thoroughly bored by…

One role attracting attention, however, is that given to Greece’s Margaritis Schinas who will be taking up the role of ‘Protecting our European Way of Life’, which – when clarified – will cover migration and security. Guido’s sure if Donald Trump had created a ‘protecting our way of life’ job to deal with immigration, pro-EU lefties would be losing their heads…

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UK Pay Soars as Jobs Boom Continues, Despite Brexit

New jobs figures released today by the ONS show average pay leaping to a growth rate of 4% in the last year, the fastest increase in over a decade, and twice the rate of inflation. Unemployment continues to tumble, seeing its lowest levels in 45 years, and the last year saw over 300,000 more full time jobs than a year ago. All despite Brexit…

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“Humble Address” Breaches Article 10 of the Human Rights Act

That this House has considered the matter of prorogation with the imminence of an exit from the European Union and accordingly resolves–That a Humble Address be presented to Her Majesty, that she will be graciously pleased to direct Ministers to lay before this House, not later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September, all correspondence and other communications (whether formal or informal, in both written and electronic form, including but not limited to messaging services including WhatsApp, Telegram, Signal, Facebook messenger, private email accounts both encrypted and unencrypted, text messaging and iMessage and the use of both official and personal mobile phones) to, from or within the present administration, since 23 July 2019 relating to the prorogation of Parliament sent or received by one or more of the following individuals: Hugh Bennett, Simon Burton, Dominic Cummings, Nikki da Costa, Tom Irven, Sir Roy Stone, Christopher James, Lee Cain or Beatrice Timpson; and that Ministers be further directed to lay before this House no later than 11.00pm Wednesday 11 September all the documents prepared within Her Majesty’s Government since 23 July 2019 relating to operation Yellowhammer and submitted to the Cabinet or a Cabinet Committee.

Dominic Grieve, Stephen Doughty, Sir Oliver Letwin, Ian Blackford, Jo Swinson, Caroline Lucas, Liz Saville-Roberts, Hilary Benn, Guto Bebb, Anna Soubry, Mary Creagh, Jonathan Edwards, Chris Leslie, Justine Greening

Remainers in parliament have passed a motion to present a Humble Address to the Queen with the aim of forcing the government to reveal communications with journalists. Downing Street says tha “under no circumstances will No. 10 staff comply with Grieve’s demands regardless of any votes in Parliament”. Guido has notified those named in the humble address, with whom he has communicated, that he expects them to protect his rights under Article 10 of the Human Rights Act and notify him in advance of any action or inaction which might potentially prejudice his rights under the Act.

Article 10 of the Human Rights Act states

Freedom of expression

1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. This Article shall not prevent States from requiring the licensing of broadcasting, television or cinema enterprises.

2. The exercise of these freedoms, since it carries with it duties and responsibilities, may be subject to such formalities, conditions, restrictions or penalties as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society, in the interests of national security, territorial disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, for the protection of the reputation or rights of others, for preventing the disclosure of information received in confidence, or for maintaining the authority and impartiality of the judiciary.

Article 10 guarantees the absolute right of journalists to “to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority”. Ironically Grieve was always very keen on this right being incorporated into UK law, it ultimately allows people to take their case to the European Court of Human Rights…

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Strong July Growth as Recession Threat Dies

Threats of a recession in the UK have faded after the UK economy showed solid growth in July. Defying remainer expectations.

As the BBC’s Economics Editor, Faisal Islam, concedes, “strongly suggesting [a] return to growth in Q3, albeit Q3 hasn’t finished yet – so recession not looking likely”.

The 0.5% growth rate – driven greatly by construction growth – comes after a 0.2% contraction in the second quarter of the year, and marks the strongest month of growth since January. 0.3% growth is three times higher than predicted – expect more economic predictions to be defied over the coming months…

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Varadkar: “If the UK is Leaving it Should Leave on 31st October”

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar voiced what Brexiteers in the UK have been saying for a while. If the UK doesn’t leave the EU on 31st October, it’s unlikely to leave at all.

“If it comes to a request for an extension, I think the vast majority of countries around the table would prefer that there not be an extension. We would like to see this dealt with. If the UK is leaving it should leave on 31st October.”

Varadkar confirming that extension is extinction. It’s 31st October do or die for Brexit…

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