With the Article 50 withdrawal process complete, the European Union and the United Kingdom now have to start the more difficult task of defining their future relationship. Can the parties reach an agreement before the transition period ends in December 2020, asks Kenneth Armstrong (University of Cambridge)? Both the UK government and the European Commission will want to … Continued
Following the expected ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement by the new Parliament in London and the European Parliament, almost immediately the issue of the longer-term trade and economic relationship will come into focus. The issues, which dogged the withdrawal discussions, will again re-emerge. This is especially true in relation to the Irish border. It is […]
The post The Irish Government now ought to prioritise securing a swift UK-EU Free Trade Agreement appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Boris Johnson’s victory in the United Kingdom General Election has been welcomed in the European Union for the ‘clarity’ it is said to bring to the question of Brexit. However, the only certainty at this point is that, from early this year, the UK will no longer be represented in EU institutions. As Ferdi De Ville and Gabriel … Continued
LSE Brexit asked some of our academics to predict what kind of Brexit we can expect in 2020. Simon Hix says that while a no-deal Brexit is still entirely possible, Boris Johnson may want to protect vulnerable parts of Britain from the damage it will inflict. The election result was a decisive mandate for Boris … Continued
A couple of days after the European elections in May I wrote an article setting out the lessons I had learnt as the lead Conservative Euro candidate in Wales, which was published by BrexitCentral on the day that Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. My key recommendation was that whoever took over as Prime Minister from […]
The upcoming general election may well turn out to be a de facto second referendum on Brexit. Here is an overview of the different scenarios that are possible and how the EU is likely to position itself in each case: The first scenario, which is taken by most as the base case, is for the […]
The post How might the EU react to the possible outcomes of the general election? appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Before the end of June 2021, EU nationals living in the UK need to apply for Settled Status (EUSS) in order to continue living and working here. Amelia Gentleman called the application process via the app the ‘’gateway between belonging and exclusion’’. In this blog, Catherine Barnard, Fiona Costello and Sarah Fraser Butlin (University of Cambridge) claim that the importance … Continued
This could be a very short article because, if I were to answer the question in the title with one word, it would be: certainty. And knowing that the public probably feel they have heard enough from politicians in recent months, I am tempted to leave it there. However, the question of what agriculture needs […]
In the current general election campaign, Brexit is a key issue. Labour’s Brexit policy appears to be as follows: Negotiate a new ‘sensible’ deal with the EU within three months of being elected; Hold a ‘final say’ (i.e. second) referendum within six months of being elected, with ‘Remain’ and the new deal on the ballot […]
The post Three hard questions (and an easy one) for Labour about their Brexit policy appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Boris Johnson’s on-the-record announcement last weekend that he will negotiate a SuperCanada-style Free Trade Agreement (FTA) – and that there will be no extension to the transition period after the end of 2020 – should give reassurance to all Brexit supporters that he is on a path to deliver a Brexit which gives us back […]
The post If Boris Johnson secures a majority, the transition period will not be extended beyond next year appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Apart from a no-deal Brexit, what does the Brexit Party want? Callum Tindall (University of Nottingham) analyses its monthly newsletter to find clues about the party’s policies and ideology. At next month’s general election, the Brexit Party (BP) embarks upon its first venture into national politics. Less than a year old, with successful European parliamentary elections under their belt, they […]
Does Boris Johnson’s deal Take Back Control of our borders, our laws, our trade and our money? Yes, on balance it does, despite the doubts. After the transition period we leave the Single Market and Customs Union, can cut tariffs, negotiate trade deals and change our own rules, regulations and taxes. We will have our […]
The government wants to bring the country together around its version of Brexit. It believes that it has the potential to return hope to the majority of citizens who express various forms of pessimism about the effect that Brexit will have on their country, their families, and their lives. But are citizens believing that reconciliatory scenario, asks Sarah Harrison (Electoral Psychology […]
On Tuesday I faced a decision that has been 28 years in the making, the longest and most strategic game of chess ever played. I helped found UKIP along with half a dozen others all those years ago with my journey to achieve Brexit shifting away from that party upon my return to the Conservatives […]
The post As a Tory MP who helped found UKIP, here’s why I back Boris Johnson’s deal appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Have you ever presided over a divided organisation or been responsible for chairing a very diverse and passionate group? I can tell you, that there is no better experience than to have beeen chairman of a Conservative Association during the last three years. I was 34 when I was elected chairman of West Dorset Conservatives […]
Faced with the prospect of a hard Brexit on Boris Johnson’s terms, Jeremy Corbyn could have threatened Labour MPs who intend to vote for it with deselection. Dimitri Zenghelis (LSE) says this may be the last – and most damaging – strategic decision the Labour leader makes. Let’s be clear about one thing. Boris Johnson is not worried about the Letwin amendment. He […]
In politics, every day is not just an adventure, but more than often a journey into the unknown. Every day I, like so many others, wake up and go through my quotidian ritual of checking news apps, which generally swing my mood between the ever-changing highs and lows of deal or no deal; leave or […]
The post It’s time to end the constitutional wrangling, back the deal and get Brexit sorted appeared first on BrexitCentral.
There is no doubt that had the Benn Act prohibiting a no-deal Brexit on October 31st not been passed, the EU would have agreed to a Brexit deal a while ago. The Benn Act ceded control of our departure to the EU in the same way as an employee who declares his intention to leave […]
The post Parliament must now do its duty and ensure Brexit is delivered, as instructed by the people appeared first on BrexitCentral.
In times of anxious stress, it is too easy to become engrossed in process rather than substance. Today, it is timely for Britain’s voters to restore their focus, and remind themselves why they voted by a clear majority to Leave the European Union. It was only after a momentous struggle, in the 1960s and 1970s, […]
The post It’s worth reiterating that the reasons we had for leaving the EU in 2016 are just as valid today appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Shortly after the 2015 General Election, I received a note from Boris Johnson which read: “I don’t know what effect all that fish has had on your brain, but you seem to be the only person who correctly forecast the outcome.” My prediction had been published in my local newspaper and had included not only […]
Sir John Major recently described the Conservatives as a “Brexit Party Tribute Band”. Ken Clarke pronounced the Conservative Party as “the Brexit Party rebadged”. On her way to the Lib Dems, Heidi Allen complained the Tories had “become Brexit Party Version 2”. Numerous commentators have pointed out that Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings have shifted […]
The post Unlike the Government, the Brexit Party is arguing from a point of principle for a clean break Brexit appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Never have we had such uncertainty surrounding our Government and Parliament, so much so that we literally have very little idea what is going to happen. Boris Johnson has said many times that we will leave the EU on 31st October whatever happens, with or without an Agreement. Yet how can he possibly pull it […]
The post Can Boris Johnson get us out of the EU before a general election? appeared first on BrexitCentral.
At the heart of Brexit is democracy and what it means. Democracy is ‘a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections’. When David Cameron called the EU referendum he vested supreme power in […]
The post Masquerading as democrats, our Parliament is sadly now behaving like the European Commission appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Did asymmetrical devolution in the United Kingdom engage the English nation in ways that might help to explain the contribution of English nationalism to the Brexit vote? There seems to be some agreement that English nationalism indeed contributed to Brexit, writes Hudson Meadwell (McGill University). However, he argues, those who take this line are less agreed on how and when the contemporary politicization […]
Following my recent piece busting the Remainer myth that “Brexit has caused a national crisis”, here are four further disingenuous fabrications that you can expect to be promulgated widely in the media in the coming days. 1. Another referendum is the democratic response to the crisis Note that this ‘solution’ comes as a result of […]
The post Four more Brexit myths propagated by Remainers that need to be busted appeared first on BrexitCentral.
The prospect of a Brexit deal has foundered on the issue of the Northern Ireland border. Duncan Morrow (Ulster University) explains why the delicate relationship between Ireland and its dysfunctional neighbour depended on the EU’s fluid borders to survive. Any effort to ‘do’ Brexit on Johnson-DUP terms means that devolution in Northern Ireland will ‘die’, forcing an unpopular Westminster government […]
In all the discussion about the Irish border, most of us can end up feeling pretty bamboozled by the whole thing. However, there are some facts that are worth remembering which actually provide the keys to a future solution. Firstly, it is worth reminding ourselves of the present situation. The UK and Republic of […]
The post There is no reason to be bamboozled about dealing with the Irish border post-Brexit appeared first on BrexitCentral.
The government has today confirmed that all tariffs will be scrapped on wine and honey – along with 88% of goods imported to the UK – in the event of no deal. Get ready to pop the champagne… This tariff arrangement would last for a year while a new permanent regime is being worked out […]
Despite being the legal default, the path to No Deal at the end of this month is difficult to see. The Benn Act passed by MPs is a tightly drafted piece of legislation. And the Government’s bold new proposals for a deal are likely to be rejected by the EU – not least because the […]
The post While No Deal may not be optimal, it’s a Brexit outcome the Government can manage appeared first on BrexitCentral.
Since Theresa May’s Lancaster House speech, the position of the UK government has been that the UK should be outside the single market and the customs union after Brexit. At the same time, the UK government has committed to protecting the Good Friday Agreement by not accepting any physical infrastructure at the Irish land border. As a result, the Brexit […]