So we’ve had NHS, policing and immigration plans from Johnson. Stand ready for a schools spending pledge.

So Boris Johnson has pledged 10,000 new police officers, as well as a raft of tougher-sounding anti-crime policies, an Australian-style points-based immigration system (not to mention the relaxion of migration rules for scientists), and £1.8 billion for the NHS.  It isn’t hard to see where he will go next, and soon.

The remaining element of Dominic Cummings’s favourite set of policies – tax cuts for lower-paid workers – may have to wait for a publicity push, because these would need legislation, and the Government has no working majority.  Though the Prime Minister could try them on the Commons anyway, daring Labour to vote them down, as part of an Emergency Budget in October (if there is one).

What is likely to come sooner is a Government commitment to spend at least £5,000 on every secondary school pupil.  ConservativeHome understands that this announcement is written into this summer’s campaigning grid.  But we need no special briefing to work this out for ourselves in any event – and nor does anyone else.  For why peer into the crystal of Downing Street announcements when one can read the book: i.e: Johnson’s Daily Telegraph columns?

For it was in one of these, back during the Conservative leadership election, that he pledged “significantly to improve the level of per pupil funding so that thousands of schools get much more per pupil – and to protect that funding in real terms”.  The £5000 figure was briefed out separarely.  This promise was one of the two main big ticket spending items of his campaign, the other being that undertaking to raise police spending.

“It is simply not sustainable that funding per pupil should be £6800 in parts of London and £4200 in some other parts of the country,” the former Mayor of the capital wrote.  Just as the NHS spending announcement was framed by a visit to hospitals in Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire, expect any school spending news to be projected by a trip to schools in Leave-voting provincial England: all part of the push to squeeze the Brexit Party.

If that column is any guide, don’t be surprised to see a maths, science and IT element too – which would also be very Cummings – as well as a stress on “giving real parity of esteem to vocational training and apprenticeships”.  There is evidence that these are popular all-round, but especially among older voters.  Gavin Williamson is bound to have a supporting role, just as Priti Patel has had with the weekend’s law and order initiatives, but Johnson will lead.

Like his other spending promises, Johnson’s school pledge may not be deliverable in the event of a No Deal Brexit, and there are inevitably questions anyway about timescale anyway.  But if you want to know what more will be in his campaigning package, look no further.

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“To literally feel terror”

Boris Johnson wants, specifically, to frighten Labour off a no confidence vote and, more broadly, to intimidate the anti-No Deal Brexit Commons coalition MPs return in September.  That means demonstrating that voters are backing him.  That requires improving opinion poll ratings.  And that, in turn, means an August blizzard – yes, such a thing is possible – of policy announcements to prove that his new government “is on your side”.

So to Dominic Cummings’s trinity of an Australian-style points-based immigration system, more NHS spending and tax cuts for lower paid workers we must now add action on law and order.  The new Prime Minister promised 20,000 more police during his Conservative leadership election campaign.  To that we must now add 10,000 new prison places and greater use of stop and search powers, both of which are announced today.

Or rather we would do, if Johnson had a durable majority, and were the future more clear.  The money to fund those new prison places may not be available in the event of No Deal: it could be needed for other measures.  And sweeping changes to sentencing would require legislation, which the Government is in no position to present to Parliament.

None the less, the Downing Street bully pulpit has its uses, and if the Prime Minister wants wider stop and search powers to be available, he is in a position to get his way – for as long as he’s in place, anyway.  Today’s push should help.  As Matt Singh writes, there has already been “a substantial Boris bounce”.  It has largely come off the back of Brexit Party supporters, and this latest initiative is aimed at them (as well as Labour working class voters).

So too was the appointment of Priti Patel as Home Secretary.  ConservativeHome is told that there was a collective intake of breath in Downing Street when she said recently that she wants criminals “to literally feel terror”.  Number Ten need not have worried about how that view would go down.  There is “overwhelming support” for it among the public, according to YouGov.

If Johnson somehow survives the autumn without a general election, or wins one with a majority, a further question will arises about all these spending plans – namely, whether or not they’re consistent with the traditional centre-right commitment to fiscal stability.  The Prime Minister could be forgiven for thinking, given the probability of an autumn poll and the uncertainty of any result, that this would be a nice problem to have.

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John O’Connell: Cuts to inheritance tax could help the new government

John O’Connell is Chief Executive of the Taxpayers’ Alliance

The cost of dying is going up. The TPA published work yesterday detailing the taxes and charges involved when someone passes away. Inheritance Tax (IHT) is the obvious money spinner – in 2019-20, the government is projected to receive £5.35 billion from grieving taxpayers, the highest amount ever.

Inheritance Tax (IHT) is unpopular. Some polls put it ahead of other taxes as distinctly unloved – it’s often followed by Council Tax and the Licence Fee. That won’t come as a surprise to many ConHome readers, but it possibly is surprising to left-wing campaigners – who believe that inheritances entrench inequality, and that we must punish an imagined ruling aristocratic class.

Simply, IHT goes against a natural human instinct to make sure your family is looked after when you’re gone. To that end, it’s anti-aspirational – why work so hard to look after your children if the taxman guzzles it all up anyway?

But this is only one of the many ways that the government extracts money from the dead. These charges also include the cost of death certificates, land registry fees, probate and VAT.

All of that means a homeowner living in London, without a spouse or children to pass assets on to, who purchases a coffin and is cremated, faces a cost of death of up to £60,773.

This could rise to £61,308 if the newly proposed probate fees come into force. Under the innocuous sounding ‘Non-contentious Probate (Fees Order)’, Philip Hammond’s Treasury looked set to push ahead with a plan to hike the fees charged for a grant of probate from the current flat rate of £215 (£155 if a solicitor is used) to a sliding scale of fees ranging from £250 to £6,000, based on the value of the estate.

That ignores the fact that the probate service is not optional for many households. Receiving an inheritance is often unexpected and so families may not have had an opportunity to plan. This will often be the case for households on lower incomes, who do not have the resources to consult expensive solicitors. They are the people who will be most unfairly impacted.

Perhaps the cost of dying all seems rather small fry, in relation to delivering Brexit by October 31. But there is likely to be a Budget ahead of the deadline, which will need to encourage investment and win back support for the Conservative Party potentially embarking on a No Deal and General Election. So there could be three interesting elements to consider:

1. Help everyday families.

Philip Hammond’s proposal to whack up probate fees on families that may not have expected an inheritance, and may be cash poor. It is also a disproportionate increase. The level of service involved in a grant of probate is roughly equivalent, regardless of the size of the estate. Therefore, increasing the fees all the way up to £6,000 is extremely difficult to justify. As Guido reported at the time, the Lib Dems had issues with the move, as do the Law Society. It should be immediately junked.

2. Win back support with tax cuts.

The Government should consider increasing the thresholds at which people pay IHT. Consider how this issue was weaponised by George Osborne in 2007 – he dared Gordon Brown to hold an election with a promise to raise the thresholds to £1million. Brown blinked. Popular tax cuts alongside a Brexit-friendly Budget might just help a party aiming to bring voters back onside.

3. Encourage investment.

Simpler taxes are better and in the long-run, IHT should be abolished. But for now, investment is crucial. Leftist groups such as the Resolution Foundation and the Tax Justice Network have been critical of IHT reliefs like Business Property Relief (BPR). In doing so, they argue that reliefs “cost” the Treasury money; that “the government is handing out” money. Such talk is nonsense – it assumes all money belongs to the government and they simply decide to give some of it back. But until we simplify IHT by abolishing it entirely, reliefs like BPR and the Enterprise Investment Scheme can help drive growth and encourage responsible saving. BPR has been a vital tool in helping smaller companies across the UK, via the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), and has a role in ensuring that companies aren’t broken up to meet IHT liabilities, as the government alludes to. So MPs and mandarins must ignore calls from leftwing Twitter hordes and ensure that investment continues apace after the 31st October.

The new government has come flying out of the blocks and looks set to deliver Brexit by October 31st. The cost of dying may not be top of the list of priorities, but a Budget could be upon us before we know it – now’s the time for good ideas and fighting off bad ones.

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