Conservatives surge to 12-point poll lead over Labour ahead of Brexit deadline

The Conservative Party has extended its lead over Labour as Boris Johnson appears set to press ahead with a no-deal Brexit.

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times found that Mr Johnson has extended his party’s lead over Labour, as rumours continue to swirl of a potential early election.

The poll places the Tories on 33 per cent, a full 12 points clear of the Labour Party on 21 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats are in third on 19 per cent, with the Brexit Party on 14 per cent of the vote and the Green Party receiving 7 per cent.

Labour has not topped a national poll at any point in August, with the Conservatives maintaining a lead of three to 12 points.

Boris Johnson could win majority

If repeated in an election, with anti-Brexit voters split between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the result could put Boris Johnson on course to receive a majority in Parliament.

YouGov’s Adam McDonnell explained that Mr Johnson’s strategy of appealing to Brexit voters “could pay off” as long as the Remain vote “continues to be split” between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

He explained: “Conservatives are well equipped to win over further voters from Nigel Farage, and current evidence suggests they have a have a better chance of winning over Leave voters than Labour have at increasing their Remain share.

“More than half of those who currently say they will vote for the Brexit Party backed the Conservatives in 2017, so are at least somewhat open to voting for the party.”

Boris Johnson could be on course to win a majority in Parliament if a snap election is held
Boris Johnson could be on course to win a majority in Parliament if a snap election is held (Photo: Dominic Lipinski – WPA Pool/Getty Images)

He added: “If the Conservatives hold on to and improve their vote share among Leavers nationally while Labour and Liberal Democrats continue to split the Remain vote, this could prove very fruitful for the Tories in not only Leave areas but also some Remain areas.

“In constituencies such as Canterbury or Kensington, where a majority voted to Remain in 2016, Labour managed to win seats off the Conservatives in 2017.

“If there is a national swing in the Remain vote share to the Liberal Democrats compared to 2017 the Conservatives could win these marginal seats back.”

Previous polling focused on party leaders suggested that voters hold considerably more positive view of Mr Johnson than of Jeremy Corbyn.

Fuel duty cut fuels election speculation

It was reported elsewhere on Sunday that Mr Johnson is preparing to cut fuel duty in an emergency budget by Chancellor Sajid Javid, in an apparent signal that a snap election could be on the cards.

The giveaway to motorists would be the first time rates of fuel duty have been cut in eight years, with rates remaining frozen under David Cameron and Theresa May.

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A Downing Street source told The Mail on Sunday: “After eight years, it is time to finally put some money back into the pockets of motorists. The savings would help hard-working hauliers, commuters and parents on the school run.

“It also sends a clear message that the Prime Minister is fully behind business in the run-up to Brexit.”

The Sunday Times reports that Downing Street has “wargamed” the prospect of an election on 17 October, just two weeks before Mr Johnson’s Brexit deadline.

An election could also be called if MPs succeed in a plot to oust Mr Johnson via a vote of no confidence if he attempts to pursue a no-deal Brexit.

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Patrick Spencer: What the new Government should do to ensure migrants are better skilled – and supported

Patrick Spencer is Head of Work and Welfare at the Centre for Social Justice.

The debate around immigration has become fraught to the point of complete intransigence in recent years. Events as close to home as the Grenfell Tower tragedy and as far afield as the Syrian civil war have brought the subject to the fore again. Inflammatory rhetoric here as well as in other countries hasn’t helped. As we leave the European Union, cooler heads must prevail.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is today releasing a report that brings a level-headedness to the debate that is sorely needed. Importantly, it places the interests of immigrants squarely at the centre of its proposals. Immigration policy should not just be about who is allowed to come and work in Britain, but also how we support those people who do, so that they can avoid the trappings of low pay, unsafe working conditions, crime, social marginalisation and poverty.

The reality is that uncontrolled immigration growth over the last 15 to 20 years has worked – to a point. Our services, manufacturing and agricultural industries have benefited from skilled and inexpensive labour from EU new member States.

However, the economic costs of low-skilled immigration have been both wage stagnation at the bottom end of the income spectrum – analysis at the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration found that “an inflow of immigrants of the size of 1 per cent of the native population would lead to a 0∙6 per cent decrease at the 5th wage percentile and a 0∙5 per cent decrease at the 10th wage percentile” – and low levels of productivity boosting capital investment. High-skilled immigration has had the opposite effect though, increasing wages, productivity, innovation and capital investment.

In the long term, it is also likely that the British economy will demand less low-skilled labour. Automation, technology and changing firm dynamics are likely to mean a greater focus on hiring higher-skilled workers, and more fluid jobs in which individuals are expected to take on multiple roles and work across multiple teams. The CSJ argues therefore that is irresponsible to continue to operate an immigration system that is deaf to the demands of our changing economy, and risks leaving migrant labourers unemployed and at risk of falling in to poverty.

It is for this reason that the CSJ’s first policy recommendation for this Conservative Government post-Brexit is folding all EU immigration in to the existing Tier 2 skilled immigration system, and tightening up the eligibility for Tier 2 applicants so that they are genuinely skilled and can command a wage well above the UK median. Key to this recommendation is carving out occupations that are deemed of strategic interest to the UK economy, for instance nurses and doctors who come to work in our NHS, but do not earn above average salaries.

The Government’s responsibility to immigrants should not stop there. For those that do come to Britain legally, whether under refugee status or another route, we must make sure support is there to reduce the risk that they and their children become socially marginalised, end up in low-paid work or unemployed, and get stuck in the criminal justice system. It is naïve to think the immigration policy debate ends on day two.

In that vein, the CSJ also recommend more integrated support for refugees when they come to Britain, including better financial support, longer term housing options and help with English speaking skills. The report also calls for a beefing up of the Director of Labour Market Enforcement financial powers and reach. There are potentially thousands of foreign individuals kept in forced servitude in Britain today, and many more working in unsafe conditions for illegally low pay.

Finally, it is high time the Government addresses the huge disparities in economic outcomes among minority and indigenous ethnic groups. Generations of immigrants from some groups still perform poorly in the education system, labour market and criminal justice system.  The Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that poverty rates among Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) Groups are twice as high as for White British groups. Dame Louise Casey discovered that individuals of South East Asian and Caribbean descent were three times and twice as likely to live in deprived parts of the UK, when compared to White British groups. Just one third of Bangladeshi women living in Britain are in employment compared to three quarters of White British women. One in five Black African and Black Caribbean men and almost one in four Mixed Race men are economically inactive. Unless the Government addresses the problem with real gusto, it will persist.

This report calls for calmer and more long-term thinking on immigration policy that prioritises high-skilled immigration and increases support for parts of the country that have struggled due to uncontrolled low-skilled immigration. Public opinion reflects this – polling by Hanbury Strategy earlier this year found that 51 per cent of the UK public recognise that not all parts of the UK have benefited from immigration, while YouGov polling in 2018 found that ‘treating EU citizens who want to come and live in the UK the same as people from elsewhere in the world’ was supported by 65 per cent of respondents and scrapping the limit of high skilled immigrants was supported by 46 per cent of respondents.

This is a great opportunity for the new Government to fix this long-standing issue of contention in British politics for the long term.

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